Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

与政府发生武装冲突的激进组织通常与与他们有种族或意识形态联系的政党共存。在本文中，我们探讨了激进的相关反对党和全国现任政党获得的选举支持在多大程度上影响了激进袭击的次国家差异。我们认为，并以经验证明，激进分子战略性地瞄准反对党和全国现任政党的选举支持水平接近的地区，以对现任政党的选举表现产生负面影响。为了说明这种动态，我们研究了 1995 年至 2015 年土耳其立法选举和库尔德武装分子在同一时期组织的袭击的地方数据。我们还研究了 2015 年 6 月立法选举对激进分子袭击的影响，直到 2015 年 11 月的提前选举。我们的实证研究表明，激进分子的目标是执政党和库尔德反对党的选举支持接近的地区。此外，暴力的增加对执政党的选举表现产生负面影响。然而，它并没有始终对反对派产生重大影响。调查结果表明，武装分子根据选举动态战略性地选择攻击地点，攻击可能对执政党构成选举挑战。我们的实证检验表明，激进分子的目标是在选举中对执政党和库尔德反对党的支持接近的地区。此外，暴力的增加对执政党的选举表现产生负面影响。然而，它并没有始终对反对派产生重大影响。调查结果表明，武装分子根据选举动态战略性地选择攻击地点，攻击可能对执政党构成选举挑战。我们的实证检验表明，激进分子的目标是在选举中对执政党和库尔德反对党的支持接近的地区。此外，暴力的增加对执政党的选举表现产生负面影响。然而，它并没有始终对反对派产生重大影响。调查结果表明，武装分子根据选举动态战略性地选择攻击地点，攻击可能对执政党构成选举挑战。