Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Ahead of Print.
Understanding the factors underlying species establishment is critical for the management of invasive fishes, yet the roles of propagule pressure and environmental factors are infrequently quantified in joint models. We estimated the establishment likelihood of the invasive black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) by examining the relative influence of propagule pressure (introduction size and age structure) and environmental factors (temperature-driven young-of-year [YOY] overwinter survival, adult survival, age at maturity, and longevity). Simulations demonstrated that both propagule pressure and environmental factors can act as non-linear bottlenecks to establishment. When the model was applied to 12 Great Lakes tributaries and nearshore areas, black carp establishment was probable with sufficient propagules and under most environmental conditions (median p = 0.21–0.73, 0.70–1.00, and 0.46–0.97 for 100 pairs of age 4, age 9, and age 16 fish, respectively), except for YOY (p < 0.01). Our analysis is one of the few studies to examine the relative role of propagule pressure and environmental conditions on establishment, indicating that both factors can lead to establishment failure independently or concurrently within an ecosystem.

中文翻译：

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繁殖压力和环境因素在劳伦大湖盆地建立大型入侵鲤科鱼类：青鱼的作用

加拿大渔业和水产科学杂志，提前印刷。
了解物种建立的潜在因素对于入侵鱼类的管理至关重要，但繁殖压力和环境因素的作用很少在联合模型中量化。我们通过检查繁殖体压力（引入大小和年龄结构）和环境因素（温度驱动的幼年 [YOY] 越冬存活率、成鱼存活率、成熟的年龄和寿命）。模拟表明，繁殖压力和环境因素都可以作为建立的非线性瓶颈。将该模型应用于五大湖12条支流及近岸地区时，在大多数环境条件下（100 对 4 岁、9 岁和 16 岁鱼的中值 p = 0.21-0.73、0.70-1.00 和 0.46-0.97，分别为 YOY），青鱼的建立是可能的(p < 0.01)。我们的分析是为数不多的研究繁殖压力和环境条件对建立的相对作用的研究之一，表明这两个因素都可能导致生态系统内独立或同时建立失败。