This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on forests and timber production in Latin America. The analysis links a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), which projects forest migration, forest dieback, and net primary productivity spatially as a function of future climate predictions, with a dynamic optimization model of global timber markets. A global model is used because climate change has impacts throughout the world, and it is important to capture these global interactions given the role of Latin American forests in global timber production. The resulting model projects timber investments, harvesting, and forest area in critical timber producing regions of Latin America, ranging from intensively managed forest plantations in Chile, Uruguay and Brazil, to less intensively managed tropical forests. The analysis is conducted with four climate models, two climate scenarios, one DGVM, and a single economic model. Without climate change, overall forest area is projected to decline in the region as forests continue to be converted to agricultural uses, although the area of plantations increases. Timber output increases as well, although the region modestly loses some market share in global timber markets in a couple scenarios. The land use trajectory for the region is not predicted to change significantly with climate change, however, total carbon storage does increase because forest productivity increases. Timber output also increases with climate change, but market share compared to the rest of the world is further diminished because slow-growing regions like Canada gain substantially from higher growth. There is substantial heterogeneity in the projected effects of climate change on plantation species across the region. In general, timber producers in the region are susceptible to growing competition from producers in other regions who may gain more from climate change.

本文考察了气候变化对拉丁美洲森林和木材生产的潜在影响。该分析将动态全球植被模型 (DGVM) 与全球木材市场的动态优化模型联系起来，该模型将森林迁移、森林枯死和净初级生产力空间预测为未来气候预测的函数。使用全球模型是因为气候变化对全世界都有影响，鉴于拉丁美洲森林在全球木材生产中的作用，捕捉这些全球相互作用很重要。由此产生的模型对拉丁美洲重要木材产区的木材投资、采伐和森林面积进行了预测，从智利、乌拉圭和巴西的集约化管理的森林种植园到集约化管理较少的热带森林。该分析使用四个气候模型、两个气候情景、一个 DGVM 和一个经济模型进行。如果没有气候变化，尽管人工林面积增加，但随着森林继续转化为农业用途，该地区的森林总面积预计将减少。木材产量也有所增加，但在几种情况下，该地区在全球木材市场上的市场份额略有下降。该地区的土地利用轨迹预计不会随着气候变化而发生显着变化，但是，由于森林生产力的提高，总碳储存量确实增加了。木材产量也随着气候变化而增加，但与世界其他地区相比，市场份额进一步减少，因为加拿大等增长缓慢的地区从更高的增长中获益匪浅。气候变化对整个地区种植园物种的预测影响存在很大差异。总的来说，该地区的木材生产商容易受到来自其他地区的生产商日益激烈的竞争，这些生产商可能会从气候变化中获益更多。