当前位置: X-MOL 学术Environ. Health Perspect. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries
Environmental Health Perspectives ( IF 10.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-1 , DOI: 10.1289/ehp9073
Julen Egiguren 1, 2 , M J Nieuwenhuijsen 1, 2, 3, 4 , David Rojas-Rueda 1, 2, 5
Affiliation  

Abstract

Background:

Biking plays a significant role in urban mobility and has been suggested as a tool to promote public health. A recent study has proposed 2050 global biking scenarios based on large shifts from motorized vehicles to bikes. No previous studies have estimated the health impacts of global cycling scenarios, either future car-bike shift substitutions.

Objectives:

We aimed to quantify changes in premature mortality of 2050 global biking scenarios in urban populations from 17 countries.

Methods:

Through a quantitative Health Impact Assessment, the mortality risks and benefits of replacing car trips by bike (mechanica bike and electric bike) in urban populations from 17 countries were estimated. Multiple bike scenarios were created based on current transport trends or large shifts from car trips to bike trips. We quantified the estimated change in the number of premature deaths (reduced or increased) concerning road traffic fatalities, air pollution, and physical activity. This study focuses on urban populations between 20 and 64 y old.

Results:

We found that, among the urban populations (20–64 y old) of 17 countries, 205,424 annual premature deaths could be prevented if high bike-use scenarios are achieved by 2050 (assuming that 100% of bike trips replace car trips). If only 8% of bike trips replace car trips in a more conservative scenario, 18,589 annual premature deaths could be prevented by 2050 in the same population. In all the countries and scenarios, the mortality benefits related to bike use (rather than car use) outweighed the mortality risks.

Discussion:

We found that global biking policies may provide important mortality benefits in 2050. Current and future bike- vs. car-trip policies should be considered key public health interventions for a healthy urban design. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9073



中文翻译:

17个国家2050年高速自行车使用情景的过早死亡率

摘要

背景:

自行车在城市交通中发挥着重要作用,并被建议作为促进公共卫生的工具。最近的一项研究基于从机动车辆到自行车的大规模转变,提出了 2050 年全球骑行情景。以前没有研究估计过全球自行车情景对健康的影响,无论是未来的汽车-自行车换班。

目标:

我们旨在量化来自 17 个国家/地区的城市人口在 2050 年全球骑自行车情景中过早死亡率的变化。

方法:

通过定量的健康影响评估,估计了来自 17 个国家的城市人口用自行车(机械自行车和电动自行车)替代汽车出行的死亡率风险和收益。根据当前的交通趋势或从汽车旅行到自行车旅行的巨大转变,创建了多个自行车场景。我们量化了与道路交通死亡、空气污染和身体活动有关的过早死亡人数(减少或增加)的估计变化。本研究重点关注 20 至 64 岁的城市人口。

结果:

我们发现,在 17 个国家的城市人口(20-64 岁)中,如果到 2050 年实现高使用自行车的情景(假设 100% 的自行车出行取代汽车出行),每年可以避免 205,424 人过早死亡。如果在更保守的情况下,只有 8% 的自行车出行取代汽车出行,那么到 2050 年,同样的人口每年可以避免 18,589 人过早死亡。在所有国家和情景中,与使用自行车(而不是使用汽车)相关的死亡率收益超过了死亡率风险。

讨论:

我们发现,全球自行车政策可能会在 2050 年提供重要的死亡率效益。当前和未来的自行车与汽车出行政策应被视为健康城市设计的关键公共卫生干预措施。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9073

更新日期:2021-12-01
down
wechat
bug