This paper analyses the relationship between temperature shocks and migration in rural households in Viet Nam. To control for the potential endogeneity between crop production and migration we use monthly minimum temperatures in the growing season as an instrument of rice production. In this way, we exploit a relationship uncovered in the natural science. Results show that the rise in minimum temperature during the core month of the growing season (i.e. June) does cause a reduction in rice production which, in turn, has a positive impact on people's propensity to migrate. This finding, which is robust to the use of different estimators and plausible violations of the exogeneity of the instrument, supports the ‘agricultural channel’ between climate shocks and migration by highlighting a specific feature at work in a rice-producing country.

本文分析了越南农村家庭的温度冲击与迁移之间的关系。为了控制作物生产和迁移之间的潜在内生性，我们使用生长季节的月最低温度作为水稻生产的工具。通过这种方式，我们利用了自然科学中未发现的关系。结果表明，生长季节核心月份（即 6 月）最低气温的升高确实会导致水稻产量减少，进而对人们的迁移倾向产生积极影响。这一发现对于使用不同的估计量和可能违反该工具的外生性是可靠的，通过突出水稻生产国的特定特征来支持气候冲击和移民之间的“农业渠道”。