BackgroundLifetime risk is an informative estimate for driving lifestyle and behavioral changes especially for young adults. The impact of composite risk factors for cardiovascular disease on lifetime risk stratified by sex has not been investigated in the Japanese population, which has a much lower mortality of coronary heart disease compared with the Western population. We aimed to estimate lifetime risk of death from cardiovascular disease attributable to traditional risk factors.Methods and ResultsWe analyzed pooled individual data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in a Japanese cohort study. A modified Kaplan–Meier approach was used to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular death. In total, 41 002 Japanese men and women with 537 126 person‐years of follow‐up were included. The lifetime risk at the index‐age of 45 years for those with optimal risk factors (total cholesterol <4.65 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, absence of diabetes, and absence of smoking habit) was lower compared with the highest risk profile of ≥2 risk factors (6.8% [95% CI, 0%–11.9%] versus 19.4% [16.7%–21.4%] for men and 6.9% [1.2%–11.5%] versus 15.4% [12.6%–18.1%] for women).ConclusionsThe magnitude and the number of risk factors were progressively associated with increased lifetime risk even in individuals in early adulthood who tend to have low short‐term risk. The degree of established cardiovascular risk factors can be converted into lifetime risk. Our findings may be useful for risk communication in the early detection of future cardiovascular disease risk.

中文翻译：

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日本人群中按性别分层的心血管疾病死亡终生风险预测

背景终生风险是一种对推动生活方式和行为改变的信息估计，尤其是对年轻人而言。心血管疾病的复合危险因素对按性别分层的终生风险的影响尚未在日本人群中进行调查，与西方人群相比，日本人群的冠心病死亡率要低得多。我们旨在估计可归因于传统危险因素的心血管疾病终生死亡风险。方法和结果我们分析了日本队列研究中观察性队列中心血管疾病预防证据的汇总个体数据。改进的 Kaplan-Meier 方法用于估计心血管死亡的剩余终生风险。总共纳入了 41 002 名日本男性和女性，随访时间为 537 126 人年。具有最佳危险因素（总胆固醇<4.65 mmol/L、收缩压<120 mm Hg、舒张压<80 mm Hg、无糖尿病和不吸烟的人在45岁时的终生风险与 ≥2 个风险因素的最高风险相比（6.8% [95% CI, 0%–11.9%] 对男性 19.4% [16.7%–21.4%] 和 6.9% [1.2%–11.5%] ] 而女性为 15.4% [12.6%–18.1%]）。结论 风险因素的大小和数量与终生风险的增加逐渐相关，即使在成年早期的短期风险较低的个体中也是如此。已确定的心血管危险因素的程度可以转化为终生风险。我们的研究结果可能有助于早期发现未来心血管疾病风险的风险沟通。