ABSTRACT

Digital trade has become an important driver of global commerce and accounts for an increasing share of many countries’ economies. While progress in digital trade-related discussions at the World Trade Organization has been limited until fairly recently, the topic has gradually been gaining importance in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) since the early 2000s. As we also observe that digital trade governance has become increasingly politicized, we know little about these provisions’ origins and diffusion in PTAs. This research note discusses novel data and analyzes 91 digital trade-related provisions and 347 trade agreements signed between 2000 and 2019. In this note, we focus primarily on the initiator conditions and how these might lead to differences in diffusion patterns. We find that almost half of digital trade-related provisions were initially introduced by PTAs in which the United States was a signatory. Using negative binomial regressions, we find no evidence, however, that these provisions diffuse relatively more often than provisions first introduced by other countries. Our analysis shows that the diffusion of digital trade-related provisions is influenced by original trade interests and the existence of domestic digital policies at the initiator stage. Interestingly, we find that the initial degree of legalization of the provisions themselves matters for a more substantial diffusion, which contradicts the established view that soft law provisions are the preferred approach for new trade topics. This research note highlights the need to factor in the extent to which new international law obligations are adopted through the treaty networks as a result of initiator conditions addressing a certain blind spot in the diffusion literature. By focusing on the initiating states, we also speak to the literature on how international agreements serve to diffuse leading states’ preferred policy options.

摘要

数字贸易已成为全球商业的重要驱动力，在许多国家的经济中所占的份额越来越大。虽然直到最近，世界贸易组织与数字贸易相关的讨论进展有限，但自 2000 年代初以来，该主题在优惠贸易协定 (PTA) 中逐渐变得重要。由于我们还观察到数字贸易治理已经变得越来越政治化，我们对这些条款的起源和在 PTA 中的传播知之甚少。本研究报告讨论了新数据并分析了 2000 年至 2019 年间签署的 91 项数字贸易相关条款和 347 项贸易协定。在本报告中，我们主要关注发起条件以及这些条件如何导致扩散模式的差异。我们发现，几乎一半的数字贸易相关条款最初是由美国签署的 PTA 引入的。然而，使用负二项式回归，我们没有发现任何证据表明这些规定比其他国家首次引入的规定相对更频繁地传播。我们的分析表明，数字贸易相关条款的传播受原始贸易利益和发起阶段国内数字政策存在的影响。有趣的是，我们发现条款本身的初始合法化程度对于更实质性的传播很重要，这与既定观点相矛盾，即软法律条款是新贸易主题的首选方法。本研究报告强调需要考虑新的国际法义务在多大程度上通过条约网络被采纳，因为发起人条件解决了传播文献中的某个盲点。通过关注发起国，我们还讨论了有关国际协议如何分散主要国家的首选政策选择的文献。