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Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: a behavior-management approach based on data from 464,547 UK Biobank participants
medRxiv - Cardiovascular Medicine Pub Date : 2021-11-26 , DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.24.21266742
Ajay Kesar , Adel Baluch , Omer Barber , Henry Hoffmann , Milan Jovanovic , Daniel Renz , Bernard Leon Stopak , Paul Wicks , Stephen Gilbert

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of all global death. Timely and accurate identification of people at risk of developing an atherosclerotic CVD and its sequelae, via risk prediction model, is a central pillar of preventive cardiology. However, currently available models only consider a limited set of risk factors and outcomes, do not focus on providing actionable advice to individuals based on their holistic medical state and lifestyle, are often not interpretable, were built with small cohort sizes or are based on lifestyle data from the 1960s, e.g. the Framingham model. The risk of developing atherosclerotic CVDs is heavily lifestyle dependent, potentially making a high percentage of occurrences preventable. Providing actionable and accurate risk prediction tools to the public could assist in atherosclerotic CVD prevention. We developed a benchmarking pipeline to find the best set of data preprocessing and algorithms to predict absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk. Based on the data of 464,547 UK Biobank participants without atherosclerotic CVD at baseline, we used a comprehensive set of 203 consolidated risk factors associated with atherosclerosis and its sequelae (e.g. heart failure).

中文翻译:

动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病的可行绝对风险预测:基于 464,547 名英国生物银行参与者数据的行为管理方法

心血管疾病 (CVD) 是全球所有死亡的主要原因。通过风险预测模型及时准确地识别有发生动脉粥样硬化 CVD 及其后遗症风险的人群,是预防心脏病学的核心支柱。然而,目前可用的模型仅考虑一组有限的风险因素和结果,不侧重于根据个人的整体医疗状况和生活方式向个人提供可操作的建议,通常不可解释,建立的队列规模较小或基于生活方式来自 1960 年代的数据,例如 Framingham 模型。发生动脉粥样硬化 CVD 的风险在很大程度上取决于生活方式,这可能使很大比例的发生是可以预防的。向公众提供可操作且准确的风险预测工具可以帮助预防动脉粥样硬化 CVD。我们开发了一个基准管道,以找到最佳的数据预处理和算法集,以预测绝对 10 年动脉粥样硬化 CVD 风险。基于 464,547 名基线时没有动脉粥样硬化 CVD 的英国生物银行参与者的数据,我们使用了与动脉粥样硬化及其后遗症(例如心力衰竭)相关的 203 个综合风险因素的综合集。
更新日期:2021-11-30
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