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Decadal change of extreme consecutive dry days in spring over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River around the early 2000s: The synergistic effect of mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Arctic sea ice
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-11-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105936
Zixuan Zeng 1, 2 , Jianqi Sun 1, 2, 3
Affiliation  

Base on daily station precipitation data from 1960 to 2019, the variability of extreme consecutive dry days (extreme-CDDs) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) during spring sowing time (March–April) is investigated. It is found that the extreme-CDDs over MLRYR experienced a significant decadal increase around the early 2000s. Associated with this decadal change, the Mongolian high and western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPA) are significantly intensified and weakened, respectively. The intensified Mongolian high and weakened WNPA lead to anomalous northerlies and water vapor divergence over MLRYR, providing favorable atmospheric conditions for more extreme-CDDs over the region. Further mechanism analyses suggest that the transition of mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (mega-ENSO) from negative-phase to positive-phase contributes to the decadal weakening of WNPA. And the phase transition of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and decadal decrease of sea ice over the Barents Sea lead to intensified Mongolian high through exciting atmospheric wave train. Multiple linear regression shows that there could be a synergistic role of mega-ENSO, AMO, and sea ice over the Barents Sea in the decadal change in extreme-CDDs over MLRYR around the early 2000s. Analysis on the simulation of 14 models in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows that the models can reproduce the observed decadal intensification of the Mongolian high and weakening of WNPA around the early 2000s, which indicates the contribution of mega-ENSO, AMO, and sea ice over the Barents Sea to the decadal changes in Mongolian high, WNPA and extreme-CDDs over MLRYR.



中文翻译:

2000年代初期前后长江中下游极端连续干旱日数年代际变化:特大厄尔尼诺/南方涛动、大西洋多年代际涛动和北极海冰的协同效应

基于1960-2019年的逐日降水资料,研究了春播期(3-4月)长江中下游地区(MLRYR)极端连续干旱日(extreme-CDDs)的变化规律。发现 MLRYR 上的极端 CDD 在 2000 年代初期经历了显着的十年间增长。与这种年代际变化相关的蒙古高压和西北太平洋反气旋(WNPA)分别显着增强和减弱。增强的蒙古高压和减弱的 WNPA 导致 MLRYR 上空出现异常北风和水汽辐散,为该地区更极端的 CDD 提供了有利的大气条件。进一步的机制分析表明,巨型厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (mega-ENSO) 从负相向正相的转变有助于 WNPA 的十年减弱。大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)的相变和巴伦支海海冰的年代际减少通过令人兴奋的大气波列导致蒙古高压增强。多元线性回归表明,在 2000 年代初期左右,巴伦支海的巨型 ENSO、AMO 和海冰在 MLRYR 上的极端 CDD 的年代际变化中可能存在协同作用。

更新日期:2021-11-27
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