Climate change is anticipated to impact smallholder farmer livelihoods substantially. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how increased climate stress affects smallholder farmers’ deployment of various livelihood strategies, including rural–urban migration. Here we use an agent-based model to show that in a South Asian agricultural community experiencing a 1.5 ^oC temperature increase by 2050, climate impacts are likely to decrease household income in 2050 by an average of 28%, with fewer households investing in both economic migration and cash crops, relative to a stationary climate. Pairing a small cash transfer with risk transfer mechanisms significantly increases the adoption of migration and cash crops, improves community incomes and reduces community inequality. While specific results depend on contextual factors such as risk preferences and climate risk exposure, these interventions are robust in improving adaptation outcomes and alleviating immobility, by addressing the intersection of risk aversion, financial constraints and climate impacts.

预计气候变化将对小农的生计产生重大影响。然而，关于气候压力增加如何影响小农户部署各种生计战略，包括农村-城市迁移，经验证据尚无定论。^{在这里，我们使用基于代理的模型来表明，在一个经历 1.5 o}的南亚农业社区 到 2050 年气温升高，气候影响可能会使 2050 年的家庭收入平均减少 28%，与稳定的气候相比，投资于经济移民和经济作物的家庭将减少。将小额现金转移与风险转移机制相结合，显着增加了移民和经济作物的采用，提高了社区收入并减少了社区不平等。虽然具体结果取决于风险偏好和气候风险暴露等背景因素，但这些干预措施通过解决风险规避、金融约束和气候影响的交叉问题，在改善适应结果和缓解不动性方面是强有力的。