During the 20th century, the United States went from being the largest producer and user of lithium to being heavily reliant on imports from Asia, particularly lithium-ion batteries. To explore different futures for U.S. lithium, we here generate four scenarios─including COVID-19 implications─that model lithium use for its main applications: electric and hybrid vehicles, stationary energy storage systems, and small electronics. We find that the “Sustainable Future” scenario requires the highest amount of lithium (cumulatively 1281 Gg in the period 2020–2050, peak inflow in 2040 at 53 Gg); in contrast, “Fossil Fuel Everything” requires only 500 Gg and peaks in 2050 at 26 Gg. COVID-19 implications appear to be negligible in the long run. The future electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet and energy storage systems will depend upon a reliable and resilient international supply chain of lithium chemicals and/or batteries as well as vigorous recycling efforts.

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美国锂的不确定未来：到 2050 年的展望

在 20 世纪，美国从最大的锂生产国和使用国转变为严重依赖从亚洲进口的产品，尤其是锂离子电池。为了探索美国锂的不同未来，我们在这里生成了四种情景——包括 COVID-19 的影响——模拟锂的主要应用：电动和混合动力汽车、固定储能系统和小型电子产品。我们发现“可持续未来”情景需要的锂量最高（2020-2050 年期间累计 1281 Gg，2040 年流入峰值为 53 Gg）；相比之下，“Fossil Fuel Everything”只需要 500 Gg，2050 年达到峰值 26 Gg。从长远来看，COVID-19 的影响似乎可以忽略不计。美国未来的电气化