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Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research
Forest Policy and Economics ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-11-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102643
Aleksi Heiskanen 1, 2 , Elias Hurmekoski 1, 2 , Anne Toppinen 1, 2 , Annukka Näyhä 3, 4
Affiliation  

The forest-based sector is facing one the greatest transitions in its history in the face of global megatrends. Globalization, sustainability challenges and the ICT sector have put the world in a new light. Whereas some of the recent developments have resulted in challenges for the traditional forest industry, many positive expectations and opportunities are also seen to arise in the form of the transition to a sustainable bio-economy. However, to be able to fully seize the opportunity, the industry has to navigate through contingency where preparedness can have a major impact. Foresight as a strategic approach can help to prepare and sensitize decision-makers to be prepared for the future. Foresight is a process aimed at understanding the various and alternative developments of the future better. In this review, we aim to find out what the state-of-the-art of qualitative foresight in the context of forest-based sector is. Forest sector foresight remains a nascent stream in peer-reviewed literature despite the small increase in articles since 2010. Foresight has been applied relatively evenly across the sub-sectors, attention having been predominantly on adaptive approaches. Foresight studies could be classified based on their objectives and types of output into three main categories: Identifying Drivers and Trends, Management of Change and Visioning. Notably, almost all the scientific foresight literature deals with sectoral level, and lacks organisational points of view. Foresight could also provide an opportunity to include stakeholder engagement beyond business-as-usual, which seems to remain currently relatively marginal. The findings suggests that foresight in the forest sector is not entirely novel, but still developing. Many opportunities to fully capture the potential lie ahead and micro level perspectives could be enhanced in the literature.



中文翻译:

探索未知——基于森林的定性部门前瞻性研究的最新进展

面对全球大趋势,以森林为基础的部门正面临其历史上最大的转型之一。全球化、可持续性挑战和 ICT 行业使世界焕然一新。虽然最近的一些发展给传统森林工业带来了挑战,但也看到了许多积极的期望和机会,以向可持续生物经济过渡的形式出现。然而,为了能够充分抓住机遇,该行业必须应对可能产生重大影响的突发事件。远见作为一种战略方法可以帮助决策者做好准备并提高敏感度,为未来做好准备。远见是一个旨在更好地了解未来的各种替代发展的过程。在这次审查中,我们的目标是找出在以森林为基础的部门的背景下最先进的定性远见是什么。尽管自 2010 年以来文章数量略有增加,但林业部门远见仍然是同行评审文献中的新生流。远见在各个子部门中的应用相对均匀,注意力主要集中在适应性方法上。前瞻研究可以根据其目标和产出类型分为三大类:识别驱动因素和趋势管理变革愿景。值得注意的是,几乎所有的科学前瞻文献都涉及部门层面,缺乏组织观点。远见还可以提供一个机会,让利益相关者参与超越一切照旧,目前似乎仍然相对边缘化。调查结果表明,林业部门的远见并非完全新颖,但仍在发展中。许多充分捕捉潜力的机会就在前方,并且可以在文献中加强微观层面的观点。

更新日期:2021-11-20
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