Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a curative option for many hematologic conditions and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Therefore, prognostic tools are essential to navigate the complex patient, disease, donor, and transplant characteristics that differentially influence outcomes. We developed a novel, comprehensive composite prognostic tool. Using a lasso-penalized Cox regression model (n = 273), performance status, HCT-CI, refined disease-risk index (rDRI), donor and recipient CMV status, and donor age were identified as predictors of disease-free survival (DFS). The results for overall survival (OS) were similar except for recipient CMV status not being included in the model. Models were validated in an external dataset (n = 378) and resulted in a c-statistic of 0.61 and 0.62 for DFS and OS, respectively. Importantly, this tool incorporates donor age as a variable, which has an important role in HSCT outcomes. This needs to be further studied in prospective models. An easy-to-use and a web-based nomogram can be accessed here: https://allohsctsurvivalcalc.iowa.uiowa.edu/.

同种异体造血干细胞移植 (HSCT) 是许多血液病的治疗选择，并且与相当大的发病率和死亡率相关。因此，预后工具对于导航对结果有不同影响的复杂患者、疾病、供体和移植特征至关重要。我们开发了一种新颖的综合性综合预后工具。使用套索惩罚 Cox 回归模型 (n = 273)，体能状态、HCT-CI、精细疾病风险指数 (rDRI)、供体和受体 CMV 状态以及供体年龄被确定为无病生存 (DFS) 的预测因子). 除了接受者 CMV 状态未包括在模型中外，总生存期 (OS) 的结果相似。模型在外部数据集 (n = 378) 中得到验证，DFS 和 OS 的 c 统计量分别为 0.61 和 0.62，分别。重要的是，该工具将捐助者年龄作为一个变量，这在 HSCT 结果中具有重要作用。这需要在前瞻性模型中进一步研究。可在此处访问易于使用且基于 Web 的列线图：https://allohsctsurvivalcalc.iowa.uiowa.edu/。