Climate changes across the past 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations^1,2 and proxy data^3,4,5,6,7,8 have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation^9,10 to produce the first proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present at 200-year resolution. We demonstrate that temperature variability across the past 24 thousand years was linked to two primary climatic mechanisms: radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases; and a superposition of changes in the ocean overturning circulation and seasonal insolation. In contrast with previous proxy-based reconstructions^6,7 our results show that global mean temperature has slightly but steadily warmed, by ~0.5 °C, since the early Holocene (around 9 thousand years ago). When compared with recent temperature changes¹¹, our reanalysis indicates that both the rate and magnitude of modern warming are unusual relative to the changes of the past 24 thousand years.

过去 24,000 年的气候变化为了解地球系统对外部强迫的反应提供了重要见解。气候模型模拟^1,2和代用数据^3,4,5,6,7,8独立允许研究这一关键区间；然而，他们有时会得出不同的结论。在这里，我们利用古气候数据同化来利用这两种类型的信息^9,10对跨越末次盛冰期的地表温度变化进行首次代理约束的全场再分析，以 200 年的分辨率呈现。我们证明，过去 2.4 万年的温度变化与两个主要的气候机制有关：冰盖和温室气体的辐射强迫；以及海洋翻转环流和季节性日照变化的叠加。与之前基于代理的重建^6,7相比，我们的结果表明，自全新世早期（大约 9000 年前）以来，全球平均温度略微但稳定地变暖了约 0.5 °C。与最近的温度变化相比¹¹，我们的再分析表明，相对于过去 2.4 万年的变化，现代变暖的速度和幅度都不同寻常。