Despite a recent decrease in both school dropout and victimization rates, many harsh and exclusionary school policies continue to push school-aged adolescents out of school. This study combines two research areas—school dropout and violent victimization—by investigating if dropping out of school increases the chance of violent victimization. It is hypothesized that a change in the opportunity structure associated with risky lifestyles and routine activities accounts for the link between school dropout and violent victimization. Drawing on longitudinal panel data collected from a relatively homogenous sample of 1354 serious adolescent offenders who are predominantly minorities (75%) and males (86%) and fixed-effects models which enhance the causal validity of the findings by using the same individuals as their own counterfactuals over time, this study shows that dropping out of school leads to the perpetuation of violent victimization, primarily due to a change in the opportunity structure associated with risky lifestyles and routine activities. By uncovering the pathway between school dropout and victimization, this study contributes to the knowledge base on the impact of school dropouts, the source of violent victimization, and the causal mechanism underlying the link between dropping out of school and violent victimization—all of which are relatively understudied despite their significant implications for theory and policy.

尽管最近辍学率和受害率都有所下降，但许多严厉和排他性的学校政策继续迫使学龄青少年辍学。这项研究结合了两个研究领域——辍学和暴力受害——通过调查辍学是否会增加暴力受害的机会。据推测，与危险的生活方式和日常活动相关的机会结构的变化解释了辍学和暴力受害之间的联系。利用从 1354 名主要是少数族裔 (75%) 和男性 (86%) 的严重青少年罪犯的相对同质样本中收集的纵向面板数据，以及固定效应模型，这些模型通过使用与他们相同的个体来增强调查结果的因果有效性随着时间的推移自己的反事实，这项研究表明，辍学会导致暴力受害的长期存在，这主要是由于与危险生活方式和日常活动相关的机会结构发生了变化。通过揭示辍学和受害之间的联系，本研究有助于建立关于辍学影响、暴力受害的根源以及辍学和暴力受害之间联系的因果机制的知识库——所有这些都是尽管它们对理论和政策具有重要意义，但研究相对不足。