Analyses of the future for manufacturing and heavy industries in a climate constrained world many times focus on technological innovations in the early stages of the value chain, assuming few significant changes are plausible, wanted, or necessary throughout the rest of the value chain. Complex questions about competing interests, different ways of organising resource management, production, consumption, and integrating value chains are thus closed down to ones about efficiencies, pay-back times, and primary processing technologies. In this analysis, we move beyond this to identify archetypal pathways that span across value chains in four emissions intensive industries: plastics, steel, pulp and paper, and meat and dairy. The pathways as presented in the present paper were inductively identified in a multi-stage process throughout a four-year European research project. The identified archetypal pathways are i) production and end-use optimisation, ii) electrification with CCU, iii) CCS, iv) circular material flows, and v) diversification of bio-feedstock use.

The pathways are at different stages of maturity and furthermore their maturity vary across sectors. The pathways show that decarbonisation is likely to force value chains to cross over traditional boundaries. This implies that an integrated industrial and climate policy must handle both sectoral specificities and commonalities for decarbonised industrial development.

在气候受限的世界中，对制造业和重工业未来的分析多次关注价值链早期阶段的技术创新，假设在整个价值链的其余部分几乎没有可能、需要或必要的重大变化。因此，有关竞争利益、组织资源管理、生产、消费和整合价值链的不同方式的复杂问题被归结为有关效率、回报时间和初级加工技术的问题。在此分析中，我们超越了这一点，以确定跨越四个排放密集型行业价值链的原型路径：塑料、钢铁、纸浆和造纸以及肉类和乳制品。本文中介绍的途径是在整个为期四年的欧洲研究项目的多阶段过程中归纳确定的。确定的原型途径是 i) 生产和最终用途优化，ii) CCU 电气化，iii) CCS，iv) 循环材料流，以及 v) 生物原料使用的多样化。

这些途径处于不同的成熟阶段，而且它们的成熟度因部门而异。这些路径表明，脱碳可能会迫使价值链跨越传统界限。这意味着综合的工业和气候政策必须处理脱碳工业发展的部门特殊性和共性。