The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has promoted economic growth of participating countries while giving rise to profound environmental consequences. To steer the BRI towards a low-carbon and green development, it is necessary to analyze past trajectories and future trends of BRI's CO₂ emissions. To this end, we assess the patterns and determinants of emission flows along the BRI during 2005–2030 using the multi-region structural decomposition analysis technique. For the period 2005–2015, we show that intermediates export of the BRI embodied more CO₂ emissions than final goods export. The significant technological improvement only partly offset the emission growth stemming from the deteriorated cross-border production structure and the surging final demand of the BRI in the past. For the period 2015–2030, our prospective analysis indicates that emissions embodied in exports of participating countries increase by over 20% in the reference scenario where historical development patterns of the BRI continue. The rise might be even higher if the initiative ends. On the contrary, enhancing diffusion and adoption of low-carbon technologies and promoting green trade within the BRI show substantial emission mitigation potential. Our empirical results reveal directions and priorities for policymaking in the pursuit of a green BRI.

“一带一路”倡议促进了参与国的经济增长，同时也带来了深刻的环境后果。为引导“一带一路”向低碳绿色发展，有必要分析“一带一路”CO ₂排放的过去轨迹和未来趋势。为此，我们使用多区域结构分解分析技术评估了 2005-2030 年“一带一路”沿线排放流量的模式和决定因素。在 2005 年至 2015 年期间，我们表明“一带一路”倡议的中间体出口包含更多的 CO ₂排放量大于最终产品出口。重大的技术进步只是部分抵消了过去跨境生产结构恶化和“一带一路”最终需求激增带来的排放增长。在 2015-2030 年期间，我们的前瞻性分析表明，在“一带一路”沿用历史发展模式的参考情景下，参与国出口中的排放量增加了 20% 以上。如果倡议结束，涨幅可能会更高。相反，在“一带一路”倡议内加强低碳技术的传播和采用以及促进绿色贸易显示出巨大的减排潜力。我们的实证结果揭示了追求绿色“一带一路”倡议的政策制定方向和优先事项。