This paper empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the ASEAN–Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) focusing on the ex-post trade creation and diversion effects with controlling related intra-bloc and extra-bloc regional trade agreements (RTAs) and economic characteristics of interconnected economies. The quantitative analysis applies a gravity model regression analysis by specifying standard pooled ordinary least squares and fixed effects regression models. We observe that the AKFTA turned out to be more favorable for Korea in terms of trade balance with ASEAN. We find that the AKFTA is a desirable trade creating RTA strongly driven by intra-bloc export activities between members and does not divert but generates more export to and import from non-members. Thus, we strongly support that the AKFTA facilitates trade between intra-bloc members and their trade with extra-bloc non-members as well. Besides which, we find that the trade creation effects of the AKFTA are industry-specific and sector-specific. For the manufacturing industry, the trade creation effects of the AKFTA are generated by both intra-bloc and extra-bloc import activity but not from extra-bloc export activity. However, for the services industry, all the intra-bloc and extra-bloc export and import activities contribute to the trade creation effects. Interestingly, we find that the trade creation effects of the manufacturing industry are smaller than those of the services industry. Considering restrictive service schedules of specific commitments in the AKFTA agreement on trade-in services compared to trade-in goods provisions, rearranging the trade-in services provisions is necessary to generate more trade gains in the future.

本文实证分析了东盟-韩国自由贸易区 (AKFTA) 的有效性，重点关注事后贸易创造和转移效应，控制相关的集团内和集团外区域贸易协定 (RTA) 以及相互关联经济体的经济特征。 . 定量分析通过指定标准合并普通最小二乘法和固定效应回归模型来应用重力模型回归分析。我们观察到，在与东盟的贸易平衡方面，AKFTA 对韩国更为有利。我们发现 AKFTA 是一种理想的贸易，它在成员之间的集团内出口活动的强烈推动下创造了 RTA，并且不会转移而是产生更多的非成员出口和进口。因此，我们强烈支持 AKFTA 促进集团内部成员之间的贸易以及他们与集团外非成员之间的贸易。除此之外，我们发现 AKFTA 的贸易创造效应是针对特定行业和特定部门的。对于制造业而言，AKFTA 的贸易创造效应是由集团内和集团外的进口活动产生的，而不是由集团外的出口活动产生的。然而，对于服务业而言，所有集团内和集团外的进出口活动都有助于贸易创造效应。有趣的是，我们发现制造业的贸易创造效应小于服务业的贸易创造效应。考虑到与货物贸易条款相比，AKFTA 服务贸易协议中具体承诺的限制性服务时间表，