In this paper, we provide a real options model framing prosumers’ investment in photovoltaic plants. This is presented in a Smart Grid context where the exchange of energy among prosumers is possible. We determine the optimal size of the photovoltaic installations based on the influence the self-consumption profiles on the exchange of energy among prosumers. We calibrate the model using figures relative to the Northern Italy energy market and investigate the investment decision allowing for different prosumer profiles and consider several combinations of their individual energy demand and supply. Our findings show that the shape of individual energy demand and supply curves is crucial to the exchange of energy among prosumers, and that there could be circumstances under which no exchange occurs.

在本文中，我们提供了一个实物期权模型来构建产消者对光伏电站的投资。这是在智能电网环境中呈现的，其中产消者之间的能量交换是可能的。我们根据自耗曲线对产消者之间能量交换的影响来确定光伏装置的最佳尺寸。我们使用与意大利北部能源市场相关的数据校准模型，并调查考​​虑到不同产消者情况的投资决策，并考虑他们个人能源需求和供应的几种组合。我们的研究结果表明，个人能源需求和供应曲线的形状对于产消者之间的能源交换至关重要，并且可能存在不发生交换的情况。