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The impact of school opening model on SARS-CoV-2 community incidence and mortality
Nature Medicine ( IF 82.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41591-021-01563-8
Zeynep Ertem 1 , Elissa M Schechter-Perkins 2 , Emily Oster 3 , Polly van den Berg 4 , Isabella Epshtein 5 , Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk 6 , Fernando A Wilson 7 , Eli Perencevich 8, 9 , Warren B P Pettey 6, 10, 11 , Westyn Branch-Elliman 5, 12, 13 , Richard E Nelson 7, 10, 11
Affiliation  

The role that traditional and hybrid in-person schooling modes contribute to the community incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections relative to fully remote schooling is unknown. We conducted an event study using a retrospective nationwide cohort evaluating the effect of school mode on SARS-CoV-2 cases during the 12 weeks after school opening (July–September 2020, before the Delta variant was predominant), stratified by US Census region. After controlling for case rate trends before school start, state-level mitigation measures and community activity level, SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates were not statistically different in counties with in-person learning versus remote school modes in most regions of the United States. In the South, there was a significant and sustained increase in cases per week among counties that opened in a hybrid or traditional mode versus remote, with weekly effects ranging from 9.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.7–16.1) to 21.3 (95% CI = 9.9–32.7) additional cases per 100,000 persons, driven by increasing cases among 0–9 year olds and adults. Schools can reopen for in-person learning without substantially increasing community case rates of SARS-CoV-2; however, the impacts are variable. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the underlying reasons for the observed regional differences more fully.



中文翻译:

开学模式对 SARS-CoV-2 社区发病率和死亡率的影响

相对于完全远程教育,传统和混合面对面教育模式对社区 SARS-CoV-2 感染发病率的影响尚不清楚。我们使用回顾性全国队列进行了一项事件研究,评估了学校开学后 12 周(2020 年 7 月至 9 月,在 Delta 变体占主导地位之前)期间学校模式对 SARS-CoV-2 病例的影响,按美国人口普查区域分层。在控制开学前的病例率趋势、州级缓解措施和社区活动水平后,在美国大部分地区,采用面对面学习模式的县与远程学校模式的县的 SARS-CoV-2 发病率没有统计学差异。在南方,在以混合或传统模式开放的县与偏远县相比,每周病例显着且持续增加,每周影响范围为 9.8(95% 置信区间 (CI) = 2.7–16.1)至 21.3(95% CI = 9.9–32.7) 每 100,000 人中新增病例,这是由于 0–9 岁儿童和成人病例增加所致。学校可以重新开放进行面对面学习,而不会大幅增加社区的 SARS-CoV-2 病例率;然而,影响是可变的。需要更多的研究来更充分地阐明观察到的区域差异的根本原因。学校可以重新开放进行面对面学习,而不会大幅增加社区的 SARS-CoV-2 病例率;然而,影响是可变的。需要更多的研究来更充分地阐明观察到的区域差异的根本原因。学校可以重新开放进行面对面学习,而不会大幅增加社区的 SARS-CoV-2 病例率;然而,影响是可变的。需要更多的研究来更充分地阐明观察到的区域差异的根本原因。

更新日期:2021-10-27
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