Autonomous transportation is an increasingly popular concept and is gradually becoming a reality. This transformation also changes the way people travel. For example, the autonomous ferry is an emerging alternative for residents living in coastal areas. To evaluate the safety of an autonomous ferry, a thorough safety review is necessary. This paper makes an initial attempt by developing a model for performing a risk assessment of collisions between an autonomous ship with manned vessels and applying this to a specific ferry operating in a canal. The safety barriers to prevent a collision are identified, as well as the respective failure modes. A Bayesian belief network is employed to model the collision and to quantitively assess the collision risk of the autonomous ferry. Relevant data are collected to perform a quantitative risk analysis. By running the model, the likelihood of a collision is calculated. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to identify the most contributing causes.

自动驾驶是一个越来越流行的概念，并逐渐成为现实。这种转变也改变了人们的出行方式。例如，自动渡轮是沿海地区居民的新兴替代方案。为了评估自主渡轮的安全性，需要进行彻底的安全审查。本文通过开发一个模型进行初步尝试，该模型用于对自主船舶与载人船只之间的碰撞进行风险评估，并将其应用于在运河中运行的特定渡轮。确定了防止碰撞的安全屏障，以及相应的故障模式。采用贝叶斯信念网络对碰撞进行建模并定量评估自主渡轮的碰撞风险。收集相关数据以进行定量风险分析。通过运行模型，计算碰撞的可能性。还进行了敏感性分析以确定最重要的原因。