Marine species may respond and adapt to climate change through shifting spatial distributions, but options may be limited by the occupancy of essential habitats which are anchored in space. Limited knowledge of when spatial constraints are most likely to occur in marine fish life cycles has impeded the development of realistic distribution forecasts. In this study, we develop and implement analytical techniques to identify spatial constraints, defined by both the consistency through which a particular geographic area is used year after year, and by the extent of such area with respect to the entire population range. This approach is applied to simulated data and to ten case-studies including six groundfish species from three subarctic marine systems. Our analyses illustrate that the early phase of the species’ life cycle is more spatially constrained than older life stages. We detected significant species-specific variability in both the degree to which species are anchored in space throughout their life cycle, and the ontogenetic changes in the geographic association. There is an indication that this variability can be explained by the species life history strategy, highlighting the need to extend similar analyses to other species and regions. The presence of ontogenetic spatial constraints, particularly during early life stages, indicates restrictions exist to changes in spatial distribution and questions the assertion that global warming will uniformly result in an increase in abundance and harvest at higher latitudes and decreases at lower latitudes. Our study develops ecological and analytical insights that are critical for accurate projections of species distributions under different climate change scenarios.

中文翻译：

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亚北极海洋鱼类的个体发育空间限制

海洋物种可能会通过改变空间分布来响应和适应气候变化，但选择可能会受到固定在太空中的基本栖息地的占用的限制。对海洋鱼类生命周期中何时最有可能发生空间限制的了解有限，阻碍了现实分布预测的发展。在这项研究中，我们开发和实施分析技术来识别空间限制，这些限制由年复一年使用特定地理区域的一致性和程度来定义相对于整个人口范围，这样的区域。这种方法适用于模拟数据和十个案例研究，包括来自三个亚北极海洋系统的六种底层鱼类。我们的分析表明，物种生命周期的早期阶段比较早的生命阶段在空间上受到更多限制。我们检测到物种在其整个生命周期中锚定在空间中的程度以及地理关联中的个体发生变化方面存在显着的物种特异性变异性。有迹象表明，这种变异性可以用物种生活史策略来解释，强调需要将类似的分析扩展到其他物种和地区。个体发育空间限制的存在，特别是在生命的早期阶段，表明空间分布的变化存在限制，并对全球变暖将统一导致高纬度地区丰度和收获增加而低纬度地区减少的断言提出质疑。我们的研究开发了生态和分析见解，这对于准确预测不同气候变化情景下的物种分布至关重要。