Egypt faces great challenges to manage its limited freshwater resources. Shortage in freshwater, due to expected stresses of climatic changes and upper Nile projects, will have major impacts on Egypt's water and food security. About 85% of the annual total freshwater resource is consumed by agriculture. The objective of this work is to assess the future water security situation of Kafr El-Sheikh governorate, Nile Delta, Egypt, under climate change and urbanization stresses, compared to the current situation. Main investigated water security elements for this study were the irrigation water requirements and agricultural land areas. Two different reference evapotranspiration equations were used to calculate the future irrigation water requirements under three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for the period 2010–2100, based on the intergovernmental panel on climate change’s 5th assessment report. Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) were used to generate a land use classification map, which was used to estimate the losses in each land use category of the study area under 0.5 and 1.0 m relative sea level rise (SLR) estimates. Combined scenarios of future changes in irrigation water consumption and agricultural land area were analysed. The results show that the future water security situation of the governorate is highly sensitive to projected climatic changes. Moreover, most future scenarios revealed that the agricultural land area would decrease, which will cause serious food security problems. The maximum decrease by about 55.9% of the agricultural land area for year 2095 compared to year 2016 is estimated, due to the current annual decreasing rate of 0.4% and 1.0 m SLR, whatever the applied RCP scenario. While the maximum increase in the required irrigation water would be about 6% due to the RCP85 scenario, assuming no change in the irrigation land area, with a mixing ratio of 1.34 (freshwater): 1 (drainage water) which would affect the crop yield productivity. A regular assessment of water security elements for each of the Egyptian governorates should be managed and an urgent integrated plan for food security to adapt with the future climate change impacts is essential.

埃及在管理其有限的淡水资源方面面临巨大挑战。由于气候变化和尼罗河上游项目的预期压力，淡水短缺将对埃及的水和粮食安全产生重大影响。每年约有 85% 的淡水资源被农业消耗。这项工作的目的是评估埃及尼罗河三角洲 Kafr El-Sheikh 省在气候变化和城市化压力下与当前情况相比的未来水安全状况。本研究主要调查的水安全要素是灌溉用水需求和农业用地面积。使用两个不同的参考蒸发蒸腾方程来计算三种不同的代表性浓度路径 (RCP)（2.6、4.5 和 8. 5 个情景），用于 2010-2100 年期间，基于政府间气候变化专门委员会的第 5 次评估报告。遥感和地理信息系统 (GIS) 用于生成土地利用分类图，用于估计研究区每个土地利用类别在 0.5 和 1.0 m 相对海平面上升 (SLR) 估计值下的损失。分析了灌溉用水消耗和农业用地面积未来变化的综合情景。结果表明，该省未来的水安全形势对预测的气候变化高度敏感。此外，大多数未来情景显示，农业用地面积将减少，这将导致严重的粮食安全问题。最大减少约 55。与 2016 年相比，2095 年的农业用地面积估计为 9%，因为目前的年递减率为 0.4% 和 1.0 m SLR，无论应用的 RCP 情景如何。而由于 RCP85 情景，所需灌溉水的最大增加约为 6%，假设灌溉土地面积没有变化，混合比例为 1.34（淡水）：1（排水），这会影响作物产量生产率。应管理对埃及每个省的水安全要素的定期评估，并且必须制定紧急的粮食安全综合计划以适应未来的气候变化影响。而由于 RCP85 情景，所需灌溉水的最大增加约为 6%，假设灌溉土地面积没有变化，混合比例为 1.34（淡水）：1（排水），这会影响作物产量生产率。应管理对埃及每个省的水安全要素的定期评估，并且必须制定紧急的粮食安全综合计划以适应未来的气候变化影响。而由于 RCP85 情景，所需灌溉水的最大增加约为 6%，假设灌溉土地面积没有变化，混合比例为 1.34（淡水）：1（排水），这会影响作物产量生产率。应管理对埃及每个省的水安全要素的定期评估，并且必须制定紧急的粮食安全综合计划以适应未来的气候变化影响。