The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box–Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19、社交距离和行动限制对澳大利亚新南威尔士州犯罪的影响

COVID-19 的传播促使世界各国政府对商业活动、公共交通和公共行动自由施加了严厉的限制。这些限制的影响似乎因国家而异，在某些情况下，因国家而异，因地区而异。本文探讨了州政府在新南威尔士州 (NSW) 实施的 COVID-19 限制的影响。我们检查了 2017 年 1 月 2 日至 2020 年 6 月 28 日期间 13 类犯罪（和四个汇总类别）的每周变化。而不是使用干预前数据进行预测，然后将其与实际观察到的数据进行比较，我们使用 Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) 方法对整个时间序列进行建模。我们的结果与其他研究的结果大体一致，