This paper investigates the effects of trade openness on renewable energy consumption in 35 OECD countries for the period between 1999 and 2018. A panel smooth transition regression model is built. Imports, exports, and total trade are used as proxy variables of trade openness. To reduce the error of omitted variables, a control variable pool is constructed, consisting of foreign direct investment, access to electricity, international remittances, GDP per capita, domestic inflation rate, and carbon emissions. The empirical results demonstrate the existence of a strongly nonlinear relationship between trade openness and renewable energy consumption. In terms of imports, three structural breakpoints are identified: 33.732, 40.945, and 76.395. When the imports reach 40.945% of the GDP, their effect on renewable energy consumption will switch from promoting to inhibiting. Both exports and total trade have one structural breakpoint and can constantly promote renewable energy consumption. The analyses on the temporal and spatial variations of the effects show that imports, exports, and total trade all positively impacts renewable energy consumption between 1999 and 2018. Their effects first follow a downward trend, which later change to an upward trend. Imports, exports, and total trade exert the least impact on renewable energy consumption of OECD Asia Oceania. Regarding specific countries, exports and total trade most strongly impact the renewable energy consumption in Mexico and exert the least impact on the renewable energy consumption of the United States.

本文研究了 1999 年至 2018 年期间 35 个 OECD 国家贸易开放对可再生能源消费的影响。建立了面板平滑过渡回归模型。进口、出口和贸易总额被用作贸易开放度的代理变量。为了减少遗漏变量的误差，构建了一个控制变量池，包括外商直接投资、电力供应、国际汇款、人均GDP、国内通货膨胀率和碳排放量。实证结果表明贸易开放度与可再生能源消费之间存在强非线性关系。在进口方面，确定了三个结构性断点：33.732、40.945 和 76.395。当进口达到GDP的40.945%时，它们对可再生能源消费的影响将从促进转变为抑制。出口和贸易总额都有一个结构性断点，可以不断促进可再生能源消费。对影响时空变化的分析表明，1999-2018年进口、出口和贸易总额均对可再生能源消费产生积极影响，其影响先呈下降趋势，后转为上升趋势。进出口和贸易总额对经合组织亚洲大洋洲可再生能源消费的影响最小。就具体国家而言，出口和贸易总额对墨西哥可再生能源消费的影响最大，对美国可再生能源消费的影响最小。出口和贸易总额都有一个结构性断点，可以不断促进可再生能源消费。对影响时空变化的分析表明，1999-2018年进口、出口和贸易总额均对可再生能源消费产生积极影响，其影响先呈下降趋势，后转为上升趋势。进出口和贸易总额对经合组织亚洲大洋洲可再生能源消费的影响最小。就具体国家而言，出口和贸易总额对墨西哥可再生能源消费的影响最大，对美国可再生能源消费的影响最小。出口和贸易总额都有一个结构性断点，可以不断促进可再生能源消费。对影响时空变化的分析表明，1999-2018年进口、出口和贸易总额均对可再生能源消费产生积极影响，其影响先呈下降趋势，后转为上升趋势。进出口和贸易总额对经合组织亚洲大洋洲可再生能源消费的影响最小。就具体国家而言，出口和贸易总额对墨西哥可再生能源消费的影响最大，对美国可再生能源消费的影响最小。1999 年至 2018 年，出口和贸易总额均对可再生能源消费产生积极影响，其影响先呈下降趋势，后转为上升趋势。进出口和贸易总额对经合组织亚洲大洋洲可再生能源消费的影响最小。就具体国家而言，出口和贸易总额对墨西哥可再生能源消费的影响最大，对美国可再生能源消费的影响最小。1999 年至 2018 年，出口和贸易总额均对可再生能源消费产生积极影响，其影响先呈下降趋势，后转为上升趋势。进出口和贸易总额对经合组织亚洲大洋洲可再生能源消费的影响最小。就具体国家而言，出口和贸易总额对墨西哥可再生能源消费的影响最大，对美国可再生能源消费的影响最小。