Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

气候变化对海洋生态系统影响的预测显示，全球海洋动物生物量长期下降，对渔业的影响分布不均。在这里，我们应用了来自渔业和海洋生态系统模型比对项目 (Fish-MIP) 的一套增强型全球海洋生态系统模型，由耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP6) 第 6 阶段的新一代地球系统模型输出强制执行，以提供洞察预计的气候变化将如何影响未来的海洋生态系统。与上一代 CMIP5 强制 Fish-MIP 系综相比，新的系综生态系统模拟显示，由于升温升高，在强缓解和高排放情景下，全球海洋动物平均生物量下降幅度更大，尽管在高排放情景下净初级生产存在更大的不确定性。生物量变化方向的区域转变凸显了减少海洋生态系统对气候变化的预计响应的不确定性以帮助支持适应规划的持续和迫切需要。