Remission of type 2 diabetes following bariatric surgery is well established, but identifying patients who will go into remission is challenging.

To perform a systematic review of currently available diabetes remission prediction models, compare their performance, and evaluate their applicability in clinical settings.

A comprehensive systematic literature search of MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) was undertaken. The search was restricted to studies published in the last 15 years and in the English language.

All studies developing or validating a prediction model for diabetes remission in adults after bariatric surgery were included.

The search identified 4,165 references, of which 38 were included for data extraction. We identified 16 model development and 22 validation studies.

Of the 16 model development studies, 11 developed scoring systems and 5 proposed logistic regression models. In model development studies, 10 models showed excellent discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥0.800. Two of these prediction models, ABCD and DiaRem, were widely externally validated in different populations, in a variety of bariatric procedures, and for both short- and long-term diabetes remission. Newer prediction models showed excellent discrimination in test studies, but external validation was limited.

While the key messages were consistent, a large proportion of the studies were conducted in small cohorts of patients with short duration of follow-up.

Among the prediction models identified, the ABCD and DiaRem models were the most widely validated and showed acceptable to excellent discrimination. More studies validating newer models and focusing on long-term diabetes remission are needed.

减肥手术后 2 型糖尿病的缓解已经确立，但确定将缓解的患者具有挑战性。

对当前可用的糖尿病缓解预测模型进行系统评价，比较它们的性能，并评估它们在临床环境中的适用性。

对 MEDLINE、MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations、Embase 和 Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) 进行了全面系统的文献检索。搜索仅限于过去 15 年以英语发表的研究。

纳入了所有开发或验证成人减肥手术后糖尿病缓解预测模型的研究。

搜索确定了 4,165 个参考文献，其中 38 个被包括用于数据提取。我们确定了 16 项模型开发和 22 项验证研究。

在 16 项模型开发研究中，11 项开发了评分系统，5 项提出了逻辑回归模型。在模型开发研究中，10 个模型表现出出色的辨别力，受试者工作特征曲线下面积≥0.800。这些预测模型中的两个，ABCD 和 DiaRem，在不同人群、各种减肥手术以及短期和长期糖尿病缓解中得到了广泛的外部验证。较新的预测模型在测试研究中表现出出色的辨别力，但外部验证有限。

虽然关键信息是一致的，但大部分研究是在短期随访的小患者队列中进行的。

在确定的预测模型中，ABCD 和 DiaRem 模型得到了最广泛的验证，并且表现出可以接受的出色辨别力。需要更多的研究来验证新模型并关注糖尿病的长期缓解。