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Do we prioritize floodplains for development and farming? Mapping global dependence and exposure to inundation
Global Environmental Change ( IF 8.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102370
Rachel Dryden 1, 2 , Mira Anand 1 , Bernhard Lehner 1 , Etienne Fluet-Chouinard 3
Affiliation  

Global wetlands and floodplains offer benefits and perils alike for human society. For example, humans rely on natural flood cycles for fisheries and agriculture, yet flooding also caused nearly one trillion USD in damage in the past 30 years and impacts millions of people every year. Looking forward, altered flow regimes or increased drought conditions are expected to affect the natural inundation cycle and its ecosystem services. The current and potential future impacts of flooding and drying events warrant increasing efforts to quantify our dependence and exposure within flooded areas, since any change from current inundation patterns is expected to have consequences for those who rely on regular flood occurrences. This paper provides a baseline global assessment of the dependence and exposure of human populations, urban areas, roads, and agriculture on current inundation patterns. The analysis uses a spatially explicit inundation map at ∼500 m resolution (GIEMS-D15) derived from satellite remote sensing to represent flooding extents and overlays it with current population and land use maps. We find that 35% of the analyzed population, or 2.0 billion people, live inside areas that are prone to inland flooding, which comprise only 12% of the land surface area (excluding marine coastal areas), confirming that population densities within inundation zones are about three-times above global average. Likewise, 35% of urban areas potentially experience regular, seasonal, or infrequent flooding. Agriculture shows a similar pattern with 24% of the world’s cropland in areas of recurring inundation. Finally, we estimate that 18% of the global road network is exposed to inundation during high water periods. These global estimates demonstrate a preferential tendency of human populations, infrastructure, and agriculture to be co-located within inundation areas, making related anthropogenic activities highly susceptible to future changes in flood regimes. The results are intended to offer a suite of first-order estimates as partial input to more holistic risk and vulnerability assessments and to ultimately improve environmental planning and policy at large scales.



中文翻译:

我们是否优先考虑洪泛区的开发和农业?绘制全球依赖和淹没暴露图

全球湿地和洪泛区为人类社会带来了好处和危险。例如,人类渔业和农业依赖自然洪水循环,但在过去 30 年里,洪水也造成了近一万亿美元的损失,每年影响数百万人。展望未来,水流状况的改变或干旱条件的增加预计将影响自然淹没周期及其生态系统服务。洪水和干旱事件的当前和潜在未来影响需要加大力度来量化我们在洪水地区的依赖和暴露程度,因为当前洪水模式的任何变化预计都会对那些依赖定期洪水发生的人产生影响。本文提供了对人口、城市地区、道路、和农业对当前的淹没模式。该分析使用从卫星遥感得出的~500 m 分辨率的空间明确淹没图(GIEMS-D15)来表示洪水范围,并将其与当前人口和土地利用图叠加。我们发现 35% 的分析人口(即 20 亿人)生活在容易发生内陆洪水的地区,这些地区仅占陆地表面积的 12%(不包括沿海地区),这证实了淹没区内的人口密度大约是全球平均水平的三倍。同样,35% 的城市地区可能会经历定期、季节性或不频繁的洪水。农业显示出类似的模式,世界上 24% 的农田处于反复发生洪水的地区。最后,我们估计全球 18% 的道路网络在高水位期间会被淹没。这些全球估计表明,人口、基础设施和农业倾向于在淹没区域内共处一地,这使得相关的人为活动极易受到未来洪水状况变化的影响。结果旨在提供一套一阶估计,作为对更全面的风险和脆弱性评估的部分输入,并最终改善大规模的环境规划和政策。

更新日期:2021-10-19
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