A stochastic lightning attachment model for evaluating the lightning performance of overhead transmission lines is introduced. The proposed model considers the stochastic nature of lightning attachment by taking into account the lightning discharge branched and tortuous behavior. It integrates physical criteria on leader inception by adopting the Petrov and Waters model, as well as leader discharge progression considering also the competing interaction of multiple upward leaders. A generalized methodology combining stochastic modeling of lightning incidence with an electromagnetic transients (EMT) simulation model is proposed so as to estimate the backflashover and shielding failure flashover rates of HVDC overhead lines; an application to a monopolar −400 kV line sheds light on the basic parameters that affect the lightning performance of HVDC lines. The probability of shielding failure is higher than that obtained by the deterministic lightning attachment models. The stochastic nature of lightning attachment and the effect of lightning peak current distribution should be considered for the design and evaluation of the lightning performance of the emerging HVDC systems.

中文翻译：

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用于评估 −400 kV HVDC 架空线雷电性能的随机模型

介绍了一种评估架空输电线路雷电性能的随机闪电附着模型。所提出的模型通过考虑闪电放电分支和曲折行为来考虑闪电附着的随机性。它通过采用彼得罗夫和沃特斯模型整合了领导者初始的物理标准，以及考虑到多个向上领导者的竞争相互作用的领导者离职进展。提出了一种将闪电入射随机建模与电磁瞬变（EMT）仿真模型相结合的通用方法，以估计高压直流架空线的回闪和屏蔽故障闪络率；单极 -400 kV 线路的应用阐明了影响 HVDC 线路雷电性能的基本参数。屏蔽失效的概率高于确定性闪电附着模型获得的概率。在设计和评估新兴 HVDC 系统的闪电性能时，应考虑闪电附着的随机性和闪电峰值电流分布的影响。