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Brexit Dilemmas: Shaping Postwithdrawal Relations with a Leaving State
International Organization ( IF 5.754 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-14 , DOI: 10.1017/s0020818321000412
Ignacio Jurado , Sandra León , Stefanie Walter

How do voters want their governments to respond when another country unilaterally withdraws from an international institution? We distinguish between negotiation approaches that vary in the degree to which they accommodate the withdrawing state's demands and argue that negotiation preferences are shaped by two issues. The first is voters’ exposure to the costs and benefits of accommodation. This exposure varies across issues, and we argue that citizens will generally prefer non-accommodation on zero-sum issues, but support more accommodation on cooperation issues, where non-accommodation puts existing cooperation gains at risk. Second, withdrawal negotiations create precedents, and citizens should therefore be less willing to accommodate the more they are concerned about the ripple effects of accommodation on the institution's stability. These concerns also confront citizens with two types of dilemmas depending on how favorably they view the institution themselves. To test our argument, we use survey evidence and a conjoint experiment conducted in Germany and Spain during the Brexit negotiations. We find that respondents overall are more willing to accommodate the UK on cooperation issues than on zero-sum issues, but also find evidence that Euroskeptics and Europhiles confront different issue-specific dilemmas. Our paper contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics surrounding the challenges to multilateralism that have proliferated in recent years.



中文翻译:

英国脱欧困境:塑造与离开国家的脱欧后关系

当另一个国家单方面退出国际机构时,选民希望他们的政府如何回应?我们区分了适应退出国家要求的程度不同的谈判方法,并认为谈判偏好受两个问题的影响。首先是选民对住宿成本和收益的影响。这种风险因问题而异,我们认为,公民通常更愿意在零和问题上不妥协,但在合作问题上支持更多的包容,因为不包容会使现有的合作收益面临风险。其次,退出谈判开创了先例,因此公民越是担心和解对机构稳定性的连锁反应,就应该不太愿意接受。这些担忧还使公民面临两种困境,具体取决于他们对机构本身的看法。为了检验我们的论点,我们使用了英国脱欧谈判期间在德国和西班牙进行的调查证据和联合实验。我们发现,与零和问题相比,受访者总体上更愿意在合作问题上接纳英国,但也发现证据表明,欧洲怀疑论者和欧洲亲欧主义者面临不同的特定问题困境。我们的论文有助于更好地了解围绕近年来激增的多边主义挑战的动态。我们使用英国脱欧谈判期间在德国和西班牙进行的调查证据和联合实验。我们发现,与零和问题相比,受访者总体上更愿意在合作问题上接纳英国,但也发现证据表明,欧洲怀疑论者和欧洲亲欧主义者面临不同的特定问题困境。我们的论文有助于更好地了解围绕近年来激增的多边主义挑战的动态。我们使用英国脱欧谈判期间在德国和西班牙进行的调查证据和联合实验。我们发现,与零和问题相比,受访者总体上更愿意在合作问题上接纳英国,但也发现证据表明,欧洲怀疑论者和欧洲亲欧主义者面临不同的特定问题困境。我们的论文有助于更好地了解围绕近年来激增的多边主义挑战的动态。

更新日期:2021-10-14
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