Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions can inform climate policy^1,2,3. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO₂ emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate^4,5,6. Previous estimates have suggested that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC^7,8, but they rely on models^9,10,11 that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data^{2,3,6,7,12,13}. Here we show that the release of one ton of CO₂ today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between −US$3 and −US$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on an architecture that integrates global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate local damages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption owing to warming, which requires critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 annual global electricity consumption increases by about 4.5 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), whereas direct consumption of other fuels declines by about 11.3 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in GMST. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research^7,8, because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the twenty-first century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight¹⁴.

对二氧化碳 (CO ₂ ) 排放造成的全球经济损失的估计可以为气候政策提供信息^1,2,3。碳的社会成本 (SCC) 通过描述当今额外的 CO ₂排放如何通过改变气候影响未来的经济结果来量化这些损害^4,5,6。先前的估计表明，由变暖驱动的能源支出大幅增加可能主导 SCC ^7,8，但它们依赖于空间粗糙且与数据^2,3,6,7没有紧密联系的模型^{9,10,11 ， 12,13}。这里我们展示了释放一吨 CO ₂今天预计将减少未来的总能源支出，大多数估计值在-3 美元到-1 美元之间，具体取决于贴现率。我们的结果基于一个架构，该架构集成了全球数据、计量经济学和气候科学，以估算全球范围内的局部损失。值得注意的是，我们预计热带地区的新兴经济体将因变暖而大幅增加电力消耗，这需要关键的基础设施规划。然而，寒冷国家的供暖减少抵消了全球的这种增长。我们估计，全球平均地表温度 (GMST) 每升高 1 摄氏度，2099 年全球电力消耗量将增加约 4.5 艾焦耳（占当前全球消耗量的 7%），而其他燃料的直接消耗量将减少约 11 艾焦耳。GMST 每升高 1 摄氏度，消耗 3 艾焦耳（占当前全球消耗量的 7%）。我们对净储蓄的发现与之前的研究相矛盾^7,8，因为全球数据表明，在 21 世纪的大部分时间里，许多人口仍然太穷，无法大幅增加能源消耗以应对变暖。^{重要的是，如果较贫穷的人口被赋予更大的权重14}，损害估计将会不同。