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Indebted Demand*
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ( IF 13.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-09 , DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab007
Atif Mian 1 , Ludwig Straub 2 , Amir Sufi 3
Affiliation  

We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens lower aggregate demand, and thus the natural rate of interest. At the core of the theory is the simple yet underappreciated observation that borrowers and savers differ in their marginal propensities to save out of permanent income. Embedding this insight in a two-agent perpetual-youth model, we find that recent trends in income inequality and financial deregulation lead to indebted household demand, pushing down the natural rate of interest. Moreover, popular expansionary policies—such as accommodative monetary policy—generate a debt-financed short-run boom at the expense of indebted demand in the future. When demand is sufficiently indebted, the economy gets stuck in a debt-driven liquidity trap, or debt trap. Escaping a debt trap requires consideration of less conventional macroeconomic policies, such as those focused on redistribution or those reducing the structural sources of high inequality.

中文翻译:

负债需求*

我们提出了一种债务需求理论,认为巨额债务负担会降低总需求,从而降低自然利率。该理论的核心是一个简单但被低估的观察结果,即借款人和储蓄者在从永久收入中储蓄的边际倾向不同。将这一见解嵌入到一个双代理永久青年模型中,我们发现收入不平等和金融放松管制的近期趋势导致负债家庭需求,从而压低了自然利率。此外,流行的扩张性政策——如宽松的货币政策——以未来的债务需求为代价,产生了债务融资的短期繁荣。当需求负债累累时,经济就会陷入债务驱动的流动性陷阱或债务陷阱。
更新日期:2021-03-09
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