Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) form a regular and relevant feature in drylands, as they stabilize the soil, fix nutrients, and influence water cycling. However, biocrust forming organisms have been shown to be dramatically vulnerable to climate and land use change occurring in these regions.

In this study, we used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data of biocrust-dominated pixels (NDVI_biocrust) obtained from hyperspectral and LANDSAT-7 data to analyse biocrust development over time and to forecast future NDVI_biocrust development under different climate change and livestock density scenarios in southern Africa. We validated these results by analysing the occurrence and composition of biocrusts along a mesoclimatic gradient within the study region.

Our results show that NDVI_biocrust, which reached maximum values of 0.2 and 0.4 in drier and wetter years, respectively, mainly depended on water availability. A predicted decrease in rainfall events according to all future climate scenarios combined with increased temperatures suggested a pronounced decrease in NDVI_biocrust by the end of the 21st century caused by reduced biocrust coverage. Livestock trampling had similar effects and exacerbated the negative impacts of climate change on biocrust coverage and composition. Data assessed in the field concurred with these results, as reduced biocrust cover and a shift from well-developed to early stages of biocrust development were observed along a gradient of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures and livestock density.

Our study demonstrates the suitability of multi-temporal series of historical satellite images combined with high-resolution mapping data and Earth system models to identify climate change patterns and their effects on biocrust and vegetation patterns at regional scales.

生物土壤结皮（生物结皮）在旱地形成了一个规律和相关的特征，因为它们稳定土壤、固定养分并影响水循环。然而，生物结皮形成生物已被证明非常容易受到这些地区发生的气候和土地利用变化的影响。

在本研究中，我们使用从高光谱和 LANDSAT-7 数据中获得的生物地壳主导像素（NDVI_生物地壳）的归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）数据来分析生物地壳随时间的发展，并预测不同气候变化和牲畜下未来 NDVI_{生物地壳的}发展。南部非洲的密度情景。我们通过分析研究区域内沿中气候梯度的生物结壳的发生和组成来验证这些结果。

我们的研究结果表明，NDVI_生物结皮在较干燥和较湿润的年份分别达到最大值 0.2 和 0.4，主要取决于可用水量。根据所有未来气候情景预测的降雨事件减少以及温度升高表明，到 21 世纪末，由于生物结皮覆盖率降低，NDVI_生物结皮显着减少。牲畜践踏具有类似的影响，并加剧了气候变化对生物地壳覆盖率和组成的负面影响。实地评估的数据与这些结果一致，因为观察到生物结皮覆盖减少，生物结皮发育从发育良好阶段转变为早期阶段，沿着降水减少和温度和牲畜密度增加的梯度。

我们的研究证明了多时相系列历史卫星图像与高分辨率地图数据和地球系统模型相结合，在区域尺度上识别气候变化模式及其对生物地壳和植被模式的影响的适用性。