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Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes
Nature Energy ( IF 56.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-11 , DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8
Jarmo S. Kikstra 1, 2, 3 , Adriano Vinca 1, 4 , Francesco Lovat 1 , Benigna Boza-Kiss 1, 5 , Bas van Ruijven 1 , Charlie Wilson 1, 6 , Joeri Rogelj 1, 2, 3 , Behnam Zakeri 1, 7 , Oliver Fricko 1 , Keywan Riahi 1, 8
Affiliation  

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.



中文翻译:

与 COVID-19 相关的能源需求持续变化的气候减缓情景

COVID-19 大流行与过去的能源使用趋势造成了根本性的暂时中断。大流行后的复苏将如何影响长期的能源转型尚不清楚。在这里,我们提出了一组全球 COVID-19 冲击和恢复情景,系统地探索需求变化持续存在的影响。我们的路径预计到 2025年最终能源需求减少 1-36 EJ yr -1,累积 CO 2排放减少 14-45 GtCO 2到 2030 年。不确定性范围取决于经济衰退的深度和持续时间以及需求方面的变化。通过融入新的旅行、工作、消费和生产模式的节能实践从大流行中恢复,减少了减缓气候变化的挑战。较低的能源需求复苏可将 1.5°C 一致路径的碳价格降低 19%,到 2030 年将能源供应投资减少 1.8 万亿美元,并缓解快速升级可再生能源技术的压力。

更新日期:2021-10-11
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