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Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity
Review of World Economics ( IF 1.681 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s10290-021-00436-z
Gabriel Felbermayr 1 , Jasmin Gröschl 2 , Marina Steininger 3
Affiliation  

Exploiting changes in the geography of economic integration in Europe, this paper quantifies the effects of Brexit from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity. By isolating the directional treatment effects of EU agreements for the UK, the analysis reveals important heterogeneity across agreements, sectors, and within pairs. We find that these directional effects matter for the size and distribution of the welfare effects of Brexit—the withdrawal of the UK from EU agreements resulting into a return of trade costs to the situation quo ante. We make this point with the help of a modern multi-sector trade model that is able to capture inter- and intranational production networks. In line with other papers, the welfare costs of Brexit are higher in the UK than in most other EU countries. However, heterogeneity tends to attenuate overall costs while giving rise to substantial heterogeneity between EU27 members and sectors. A scenario that could shift bargaining power eliminates asymmetries in the costs of Brexit as soon as the UK fully liberalizes its market.



中文翻译:

量化英国退欧:使用结构引力从事后到事前

本文利用欧洲经济一体化地理的变化,使用结构引力量化了英国退欧从事后到事前的影响。通过隔离欧盟协议对英国的定向处理影响,分析揭示了协议、部门和对内的重要异质性。我们发现,这些定向效应对英国退欧福利效应的规模和分布很重要——英国退出欧盟协议导致贸易成本恢复到原状。我们借助能够捕捉国际和国内生产网络的现代多部门贸易模型来说明这一点。与其他论文一样,英国脱欧的福利成本高于大多数其他欧盟国家。然而,异质性往往会降低总体成本,同时会导致欧盟 27 国成员和行业之间的巨大异质性。一旦英国完全开放其市场,一种可能改变议价能力的情景将消除英国退欧成本的不对称。

更新日期:2021-10-09
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