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Political Consequences of Economic Hardship: State Economic Activity and Polarization in American Legislatures
The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization ( IF 1.324 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-23 , DOI: 10.1093/jleo/ewaa023
Haritz Garro

Abstract
Previous literature has explored the effects of economic conditions on voting behavior. In this article, I analyze how the economy affects legislative polarization. Using recently available state legislator ideal point estimates, I find a strong negative relationship between state economic activity and political polarization. States that fared worse economically have experienced greater increases in legislative polarization. I show this relationship is causal by employing an instrumental variables strategy. The instrument isolates exogenous variation in state economic activity by exploiting time-series variation in oil prices, which differentially affects individual states according to their economic dependence on oil production. The estimated polarization effects are stronger for Republicans. The findings have implications for understanding the interaction between the economy and political outcomes. (JEL H7, H83).


中文翻译:

经济困难的政治后果:美国立法机构的国家经济活动和两极分化

摘要
以前的文献探讨了经济条件对投票行为的影响。在本文中,我分析了经济如何影响立法两极分化。使用最近可用的州立法者理想点估计,我发现州经济活动与政治两极分化之间存在强烈的负相关关系。经济状况较差的国家的立法两极分化程度更大。我通过使用工具变量策略来证明这种关系是因果关系。该工具通过利用石油价格的时间序列变化来隔离国家经济活动的外生变化,石油价格根据其对石油生产的经济依赖程度对各个国家产生不同的影响。共和党人估计的两极分化效应更强。这些发现对理解经济和政治结果之间的相互作用具有重要意义。(JEL H7、H83)。
更新日期:2020-12-23
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