ABSTRACT

In this paper, a monthly economic activity indicator is constructed for the Turkish economy for the period of 1988–2020. A dynamic factor modeling framework is utilized in the process. The variables are first categorized into five types as activity (hard data), activity (survey-based data or soft data), trade, employment, and financial variables. After determining the candidate variables for each category, data selection is finalized by using the hard-thresholding method. Results indicate that our monthly economic activity indicator is successful in detecting the past recessionary periods of the Turkish economy and providing timelier information about the course of economic activity.

摘要

本文为土耳其经济构建了 1988-2020 年期间的月度经济活动指标。在该过程中使用了动态因素建模框架。这些变量首先分为五类，即活动（硬数据）、活动（基于调查的数据或软数据）、贸易、就业和金融变量。在确定每个类别的候选变量后，使用硬阈值方法完成数据选择。结果表明，我们的月度经济活动指标成功地检测了土耳其经济过去的衰退期，并提供了有关经济活动进程的及时信息。