Conservation introductions to islands and fenced enclosures are increasing as in situ mitigations fail to keep pace with population declines. Few studies consider the potential loss of genetic diversity and increased inbreeding if released individuals breed disproportionately. As funding is limited and post-release monitoring expensive for conservation programs, understanding how sampling effort influences estimates of reproductive variance is useful. To investigate this relationship, we used a well-studied population of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) introduced to Maria Island, Tasmania, Australia. Pedigree reconstruction based on molecular data revealed high variance in number of offspring per breeder and high proportions of unsuccessful individuals. Computational subsampling of 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% of observed offspring resulted in inaccurate estimates of reproductive variance compared to the pedigree reconstructed with all sampled individuals. With decreased sampling effort, the proportion of inferred unsuccessful individuals was overestimated and the variance in number of offspring per breeder was underestimated. To accurately estimate reproductive variance, we recommend sampling as many individuals as logistically possible during the early stages of population establishment. Further, we recommend careful selection of colonizing individuals as they may be disproportionately represented in subsequent generations. Within the conservation management context, our results highlight important considerations for sample collection and post-release monitoring during population establishment.

中文翻译：

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多少才够？抽样强度影响引入种群的生殖方差估计

由于就地缓解措施未能跟上人口下降的步伐，因此对岛屿和围栏围场的保护措施正在增加。很少有研究考虑如果释放的个体不成比例地繁殖，遗传多样性的潜在损失和近亲繁殖增加。由于保护计划的资金有限且发布后监测成本高昂，因此了解采样工作如何影响生殖方差的估计是有用的。为了研究这种关系，我们使用了经过充分研究的塔斯马尼亚恶魔（Sarcophilus harrisii) 被引入澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚的玛丽亚岛。基于分子数据的谱系重建显示每个育种者的后代数量差异很大，不成功个体的比例很高。20%、40%、60% 和 80% 的观察到的后代的计算子抽样导致与用所有抽样个体重建的谱系相比，对生殖方差的估计不准确。随着抽样工作的减少，推断的不成功个体的比例被高估了，而每个育种者后代数量的差异被低估了。为了准确估计生殖方差，我们建议在种群建立的早期阶段尽可能多地抽样。进一步，我们建议仔细选择殖民个体，因为它们在后代中的比例可能不成比例。在保护管理背景下，我们的结果强调了在种群建立期间样本收集和释放后监测的重要考虑因素。