Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth’s largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions.

许多水电设施正在世界各地的热带和亚热带河流中建设或规划。虽然大坝的设计通常考虑到历史河流的排放情况，但气候变化可能会导致河流水文的大规模变化。在这里，我们分析了未来的气候变化将如何影响亚马逊河、地球上最大的河流流域和未来水电开发的全球热点地区 > 350 个潜在水电大坝的河流水文、发电和经济可行性。RCP 4.5 和 8.5 气候变化情景的本世纪中叶预测显示，流域范围内的河流流量（平均值分别为 13% 和 16%）和水力发电（19% 和 27%）减少。巴西的水坝下降幅度更大，该地区拥有 60% 的拟议项目。气候变化将导致水电低排量中断更频繁，满负荷运行频率降低。因此，许多拟建大坝的项目的最低电力销售价格甚至翻了一番多，这使得亚马逊未来的大部分水电与风能和太阳能等成本越来越低的可再生能源相比，竞争力下降。气候智能型电力系统将是支持依赖水电地区的环境和财政可持续能源发展的基础。与风能和太阳能等成本越来越低的可再生能源相比，亚马逊未来的大部分水力发电都没有竞争力。气候智能型电力系统将是支持依赖水电地区的环境和财政可持续能源发展的基础。与风能和太阳能等成本越来越低的可再生能源相比，亚马逊未来的大部分水力发电都没有竞争力。气候智能型电力系统将是支持依赖水电地区的环境和财政可持续能源发展的基础。