Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects,Science

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Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects
Science ( IF 56.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-01 , DOI: 10.1126/science.aay9165
Scott Power _{1,

2,

3} , Matthieu Lengaigne ₄ , Antonietta Capotondi _{5,

6} , Myriam Khodri ₇ , Jérôme Vialard ₇ , Beyrem Jebri ₇ , Eric Guilyardi _{7,

8} , Shayne McGregor ₂ , Jong-Seong Kug ₉ , Matthew Newman _{5,

6} , Michael J McPhaden ₁₀ , Gerald Meehl ₁₁ , Doug Smith ₁₂ , Julia Cole ₁₃ , Julien Emile-Geay ₁₄ , Daniel Vimont ₁₅ , Andrew T Wittenberg ₁₆ , Mat Collins ₁₇ , Geon-Il Kim ₉ , Wenju Cai _{18,

19,

20} , Yuko Okumura ₂₁ , Christine Chung ₂₂ , Kim M Cobb ₂₃ , François Delage ₂₂ , Yann Y Planton ₁₀ , Aaron Levine ₁₀ , Feng Zhu ₂₁ , Janet Sprintall ₂₄ , Emanuele Di Lorenzo ₂₅ , Xuebin Zhang ₁₈ , Jing-Jia Luo ₂₆ , Xiaopei Lin _{19,

20} , Magdalena Balmaseda ₂₇ , Guojian Wang ₁₈ , Benjamin J Henley _{2,

3,

28}

Affiliation

Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia.
School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD Sète, Montpellier, France.
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA.
LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Universités/UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France.
National Centre of Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, South Korea.
NOAA-Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA.
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266003, China.
Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia.
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Program in Ocean Science & Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/CICFEM/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

中文翻译：

热带太平洋年代际气候变率：特征、原因、可预测性和前景

热带太平洋的气候变率在广泛的时间尺度上影响着全球气候。在年际时间尺度上，热带太平洋是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的发源地。热带太平洋的年代际变化和变化，在此统称为热带太平洋年代际变率（TPDV），也深刻影响着气候系统。在这里，我们使用 TPDV 来指代发生在热带太平洋内的大气、海洋和陆地上的任何形式的年代际气候变率或变化。“年代际”，我们在广义上用于涵盖多年到多个年代的时间尺度，包括年代际时间尺度上平均状态的可变性、在年代际时间尺度上展开的外部强迫平均状态变化，以及人类行为的年代际变化。高频模式，如 ENSO。

更新日期：2021-10-01

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