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Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better – a perspective
Environmental Modelling & Software ( IF 4.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105209
Jeroen Steenbeek 1 , Joe Buszowski 1 , David Chagaris 2 , Villy Christensen 1, 3 , Marta Coll 1, 4 , Elizabeth A Fulton 5, 6 , Stelios Katsanevakis 7 , Kristy A Lewis 8 , Antonios D Mazaris 9 , Diego Macias 10 , Kim de Mutsert 11 , Greig Oldford 3, 12 , Maria Grazia Pennino 13 , Chiara Piroddi 14 , Giovanni Romagnoni 15, 16 , Natalia Serpetti 14, 17 , Yunne-Jai Shin 18 , Michael A Spence 19 , Vanessa Stelzenmüller 20
Affiliation  

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas.

We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs’ usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.



中文翻译:

改进时空海洋生态系统建模——一个观点

海洋生态系统模型 (MEM) 提供了对海洋生态系统动态的更深入了解。联合国海洋科学促进可持续发展十年强调需要部署这些复杂的机械时空模型,以使政策制定者和社会参与到可持续管理海洋的对话中。从我们的共同观点来看,MEMS 仍未得到充分利用,因为它们仍然缺乏正式的验证、校准和不确定性量化,这会破坏它们在政策领域的可信度和接受度。

我们探讨了为什么存在这些缺点以及如何使全球建模社区能够提高 MEMS 的实用性。我们确定了评估模型技能、不确定性和信心的提议解决方案与其实际系统部署之间存在明显差距。我们将这种差距归因于生态系统建模文献在很大程度上忽略了一个潜在因素:技术问题。我们最后提出了一个具有成本效益、可扩展性和简单性的概念解决方案,因为复杂的时空海洋生态系统建模已经足够复杂。

更新日期:2021-09-30
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