Cereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region’s semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritized agriculture as an adaptation sector in its intended nationally determined contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980–2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020–2060 and 2061–2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020–2060 and 20% in 2061–2099 compared to the 1980–2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.

撒哈拉以南非洲的谷物作物生产尚未实现促进经济发展和粮食安全所急需的增产。该地区半干旱农业生态系统中的玉米产量受到高度多变的降雨量的限制，而气候变化可能会加剧这种情况。因此，坦桑尼亚政府将农业作为其预期国家自主贡献的适应部门，并将作物管理调整作为其农业部门发展计划的关键投资领域。在这项研究中，我们调查了不同气候情景下玉米产量的未来变化如何通过区域调整作物管理和品种适应策略来应对。作物模型用于模拟坦桑尼亚 Singida 地区 1980-2012 年基线期和 2020-2060 年和 2061-2099 年三个未来气候预测下的玉米产量。提高产量的适应策略是充分灌溉、亏缺灌溉、覆盖物和氮添加以及另一个栽培品种。根据我们的模型结果，温度升高是未来玉米产量下降的主要驱动因素。与 1980-2012 年基线相比，呼吸和物候发育增加与 2020-2060 年玉米产量下降 16% 和 2061-2099 年下降 20% 相关。令人惊讶的是，没有一种管理策略显着提高了产量；然而，作为替代应对策略进行测试的不同玉米品种表现更好。