Climate Policy ( IF 6.056 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-24 , DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1965525 Hector Pollitt 1, 2 , Richard Lewney 2 , Bence Kiss-Dobronyi 3 , Xinru Lin 2
ABSTRACT
Only twelve years after the global financial crisis, in 2020 the world was again in economic crisis. This time around, the source of the crisis was the COVID-19 global pandemic, which has affected the economy differently than the global financial crisis. However, as they were in 2008–2009, conventional macroeconomic theory and models have once again been found wanting, and economists have again turned for insights to the work of Keynes and more recent post-Keynesian scholars. This paper explores a simulation of the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 using the E3ME macro-econometric model. It describes two potential recovery packages, one of which could be described as ‘green’. The modelling shows that the green recovery package could support the global economy and national labour markets through the recovery period, outperforming an equivalent conventional stimulus package while simultaneously reducing global CO2 emissions by 12%.
Key policy insights
A green recovery plan is assessed against a reference scenario with COVID-19. It outperforms a non-green recovery plan of comparable value, while also reducing CO2 emissions by up to 12% below the reference scenario (15% below no-COVID baseline).
The policies in the green recovery plan provide different relative impacts. Car scrappage schemes that promote the uptake of electric vehicles have the largest impact on GDP and jobs. Renewables, energy efficiency and electric vehicle promotion all have large impacts on emissions.
The green recovery plan boosts production levels in all sectors of the economy except for energy and utilities. It boosts the consumer services sector that has been most affected initially by the pandemic but also the investment sectors that could suffer longer-term damage.
中文翻译：
模拟 COVID-19 的经济影响和可能的绿色复苏计划：后凯恩斯主义方法
摘要
全球金融危机仅过去12年，2020年，世界又一次陷入经济危机。这一次，危机的根源是 COVID-19 全球大流行，它对经济的影响与全球金融危机不同。然而，与 2008-2009 年一样，传统的宏观经济理论和模型再次被发现不足，经济学家再次转向凯恩斯和最近的后凯恩斯主义学者的工作的见解。本文使用 E3ME 宏观经济计量模型探讨了对 COVID-19 宏观经济影响的模拟。它描述了两个潜在的恢复包，其中一个可以被描述为“绿色”。模型显示，绿色复苏一揽子计划可以在复苏期间支持全球经济和国家劳动力市场，2排放量减少 12%。
关键政策见解
根据 COVID-19 的参考情景评估绿色恢复计划。它优于具有可比价值的非绿色恢复计划，同时还可以将 CO 2排放量比参考情景（比无 COVID 基线低 15%）减少多达 12%。
绿色复苏计划中的政策提供了不同的相对影响。促进电动汽车普及的汽车报废计划对 GDP 和就业的影响最大。可再生能源、能源效率和电动汽车推广都对排放有很大影响。
绿色复苏计划提高了除能源和公用事业以外的所有经济部门的生产水平。它提振了最初受大流行影响最大的消费服务部门，但也提振了可能遭受长期损害的投资部门。
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