A limitation of genetic epidemiological analysis when associations are genuinely J-shaped illustrated using a prospective study of alcohol consumption and vascular disease,International Journal of Epidemiology

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A limitation of genetic epidemiological analysis when associations are genuinely J-shaped illustrated using a prospective study of alcohol consumption and vascular disease
International Journal of Epidemiology ( IF 7.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-25 , DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab162
Chris Frost ₁ , Nicholas Wald ₂

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Mendelian randomization, a commonly adopted approach in genetic epidemiology, is of value in distinguishing causal from non-causal associations.¹ There are, however, limitations to the conclusions that can be drawn from this approach when the underlying relationship between an outcome and an exposure is non-linear.² In this paper we explore a consequence of these limitations, illustrating these using a prospective epidemiological study of vascular disease in 500 000 Chinese people (the Kadoorie cohort).³ The study authors concluded that the recognized lower risk of stroke among moderate alcohol drinkers is not causal but due to confounding or reverse causation (people at risk of stroke giving up alcohol): we believe that this conclusion is potentially unsound due to the analysis methods adopted. An identical analysis of alcohol and myocardial infarction was inconclusive; a small benefit or hazard of alcohol could not be excluded.³

更新日期：2021-09-27

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