Objectives:

Disqualifying conviction lists (DCLs) bar applicants with certain convictions within specified timeframes from employment. Using proposed federal legislative changes in the aviation sector as a case study, we examine whether convictions under the existing policy are associated with subsequent arrest. Then we consider the implications of proposed expansions—arrests instead of convictions and a longer look-back window—on employment restrictions.

Methods:

Since DCLs exclude ineligible applicants with conviction records, we use a large, single-state sample of diverse criminal histories. We compare subsequent arrest rates across offense types, consider variations in hazard patterns, and project exclusion estimates based on current and anticipated policy reforms.

Results:

Only half of the disqualifying offenses have consistently higher recidivism rates than non-disqualifying offense types. Over 20 percent of the sample would be barred from employment, policy extensions double this estimate, and exclusions are age-graded, shifting a peak conviction age of 20 years old to a peak “consequence age” of 28.

Conclusions:

Including a narrower set of offenses would reduce those automatically disqualified in our study context by nearly 20 percent, or 39,000 individuals. Instead of expanding the DCL scope, successful criteria should be both effective in prediction and narrow in application.

中文翻译：

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变化的高峰和累积的后果：取消高安全性工作的定罪

目标：

取消资格的定罪名单 (DCL) 禁止在指定时间范围内有某些定罪的申请人就业。以航空部门拟议的联邦立法变更为案例研究，我们研究了现有政策下的定罪是否与随后的逮捕有关。然后我们考虑拟议的扩张——逮捕而不是定罪和更长的回顾窗口——对就业限制的影响。

方法：

由于 DCL 排除了具有定罪记录的不合格申请人，因此我们使用了具有不同犯罪历史的大型单一州样本。我们比较了不同犯罪类型的后续逮捕率，考虑了危害模式的变化，以及基于当前和预期政策改革的项目排除估计。

结果：

只有一半的取消资格犯罪的累犯率始终高于非取消资格的犯罪类型。超过 20% 的样本将被禁止就业，政策延期是这一估计的两倍，并且排除是按年龄分级的，将 20 岁的最高定罪年龄转变为 28 岁的最高“后果年龄”。

结论：

包括一组更窄的违规行为将使我们研究环境中自动取消资格的人数减少近 20%，即 39,000 人。成功的标准不应扩大 DCL 的范围，而应既能有效地预测，又能缩小应用范围。