Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab sizes from both Great South Bay and Chesapeake Bay. We fit accelerated failure time models to our data and to data from prior blue crab winter mortality experiments, illustrating that, in a widely distributed, commercially valuable marine decapod, temperature, salinity, size, estuary of origin, and winter duration were important predictors of winter mortality. Furthermore, our results suggest that extrapolation of a Chesapeake Bay based survivorship model to crabs from New York estuaries yielded poor fits. As such, the severity and duration of winter can impact northern blue crab populations differently along latitudinal gradients. In the context of climate change, future warming could possibility confer a benefit to crab populations near the range edge that are currently limited by temperature-induced winter mortality by shifting their range edge poleward, but care must be taken in generalizing from models that are developed based on populations from one part of the range to populations near the edges, especially for species that occupy large geographical areas.

中文翻译：

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蓝蟹（Callinectes sapidus）越冬存活的种群水平差异：沿纬度梯度外推气候敏感性的注意事项。

冬季死亡率会强烈影响靠近极地范围限制的蓝蟹（Callinectes sapidus）的种群动态。我们在实验室模拟了冬季，以使用来自大南湾和切萨皮克湾的各种大小的螃蟹来测试三年内温度、盐度和起源河口对蓝蟹冬季死亡率的影响。我们将加速失效时间模型与我们的数据和先前蓝蟹冬季死亡率实验的数据拟合，说明在广泛分布的、具有商业价值的海洋十足目动物中，温度、盐度、大小、起源河口和冬季持续时间是重要的预测因子冬季死亡率。此外，我们的结果表明，将基于切萨皮克湾的生存模型外推到来自纽约河口的螃蟹的拟合效果不佳。像这样，冬季的严重程度和持续时间会在纬度梯度上对北部蓝蟹种群产生不同的影响。在气候变化的背景下，未来的变暖可能会通过将其范围边缘向两极移动而使目前受到温度引起的冬季死亡率限制的范围边缘附近的螃蟹种群受益，但必须注意从开发的模型中进行概括基于从范围的一部分到边缘附近的种群的种群，特别是对于占据较大地理区域的物种。