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Pandemic Restrictions and Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns in New York, São Paulo, and Stockholm
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice ( IF 2.036 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-22 , DOI: 10.1177/10439862211038471
Vania Ceccato 1 , Tulio Kahn 2 , Christopher Herrmann 3 , Anders Östlund 4
Affiliation  

Studies are showing evidence of the effect of changes in routine activities due to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on crime levels in many cities worldwide. This study evaluates the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on temporal and spatial patterns of crime in three major cities under very different national contexts. Each of the three countries and cities experienced different levels of pandemic restrictions and societal closure. The cities of New York (the United States), São Paulo (Brazil), and Stockholm (Sweden) were selected as cases. Temporal quantitative methods, spatial statistics techniques, and Geographical Information System (GIS) underlie the methodology used in this study. Findings show that there is a statistically significant break in the trend in crime levels after the stay-at-home orders were implemented in New York City, São Paulo, and Stockholm in the first months of 2020; the only exception was for murder. Such an impact varies by crime type and city context, but increases again after a few months, indicating how fast crime and criminals adapt. Residential burglary decreased, whereas nonresidential burglary increased overall. Changes in the levels and geography of vehicle thefts were observed, with an overall increase of significant cold spots but, in several cases, also solidification of existing crime concentrations in known crime attractors and in some deprived areas.



中文翻译:

纽约、圣保罗和斯德哥尔摩的大流行限制和时空犯罪模式

研究表明,由于 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行,日常活动的变化对全球许多城市的犯罪水平产生了影响。本研究评估了 COVID-19 大流行对三个主要城市在不同国家背景下的犯罪时空模式的潜在影响。这三个国家和城市都经历了不同程度的大流行限制和社会封闭。纽约(美国)、圣保罗(巴西)和斯德哥尔摩(瑞典)城市被选为案例。时间定量方法、空间统计技术和地理信息系统 (GIS) 是本研究中使用的方法论的基础。调查结果显示,在纽约市实施居家令后,犯罪率趋势在统计上出现显着突破,2020 年前几个月的圣保罗和斯德哥尔摩;唯一的例外是谋杀。这种影响因犯罪类型和城市环境而异,但几个月后再次增加,表明犯罪和犯罪分子的适应速度有多快。住宅入室盗窃案有所减少,而非住宅入室盗窃案总体上有所增加。观察到车辆盗窃的程度和地域发生了变化,显着的冷点总体上有所增加,但在一些情况下,已知犯罪吸引点和一些贫困地区的现有犯罪集中度也有所提高。而非住宅盗窃案总体上有所增加。观察到车辆盗窃的程度和地域发生了变化,显着的冷点总体上有所增加,但在一些情况下,已知犯罪吸引点和一些贫困地区的现有犯罪集中度也有所提高。而非住宅盗窃案总体上有所增加。观察到车辆盗窃的程度和地域发生了变化,显着的冷点总体上有所增加,但在一些情况下,已知犯罪吸引点和一些贫困地区的现有犯罪集中度也有所提高。

更新日期:2021-09-22
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