Reaching carbon neutrality would require the retirement of conventional power sources and substitution with renewable energy sources. Given that immediate substitution from conventional to renewable power sources is not feasible in the status quo, we investigate whether adding residential solar photovoltaic (PV) technology in addition to conventional power sources would reduce residential emissions. We use a large survey dataset of more than 300,000 observations and employ a structural equation model (SEM) to validate our findings. Interestingly, emissions increase by 1.75% if residential PV is adopted, and Japanese citizens with residential PV systems end up using 3.02% more electricity. We also find that pro-environmental consumers may also produce more emissions with PVs. As a result, reaching target carbon reductions in the residential sector would necessitate eliminating conventional energy sources. We address the policy implications for pathways to reduce residential emissions.

实现碳中和将需要淘汰传统能源并用可再生能源替代。鉴于在现状下立即替代传统能源至可再生能源是不可行的，我们调查了在传统能源之外添加住宅太阳能光伏 (PV) 技术是否会减少住宅排放。我们使用包含超过 300,000 个观测值的大型调查数据集，并采用结构方程模型 (SEM) 来验证我们的发现。有趣的是，如果采用住宅光伏，排放量会增加 1.75%，而拥有住宅光伏系统的日本公民最终使用的电力会增加 3.02%。我们还发现，亲环境消费者也可能会产生更多的光伏排放。其结果，要实现住宅部门的碳减排目标，就必须消除传统能源。我们解决了对减少住宅排放的途径的政策影响。