Future changes of land use and land cover (LULC) due to urbanization can cause variations in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, affecting local climate and potentially worsening impact of such events. This work examines the local climatic impacts associated with projected urban expansion through simulations of rainfall and temperature over the rapidly growing city of the middle-eastern region in Tanzania. Simulations were conducted using a mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a period of 10 days during the rainfall season in April 2018. The Global Forecasting System data of 0.25° resolution was used to simulate the WRF model in two-way nested domains at resolutions of 12 km and 4 km correspondingly. Urban and built-up areas under the current state, low urbanization (30%), and high urbanization (99%) scenarios were taken into account as LULC categories. As the urbanized area increased, daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, as well as precipitation increased. Local circulation affected the spatial irregularities of air temperature and precipitation. Results imply that urbanization can amplify the impacts of future climate changes dramatically. These results can be applicable to the city planning to minimize the adverse effect of urbanization on temperature and precipitation.

中文翻译：

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坦桑尼亚中东地区预计城市扩张对雨季降雨和气温的影响

由于城市化而导致的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的未来变化会导致极端天气事件的频率和严重程度发生变化，从而影响当地气候并可能使此类事件的影响恶化。这项工作通过模拟坦桑尼亚中东地区快速发展的城市的降雨和温度，研究了与预计城市扩张相关的当地气候影响。在 2018 年 4 月的雨季期间，使用中尺度天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型进行了为期 10 天的模拟。 0.25°分辨率的全球预报系统数据用于在双向嵌套域中模拟 WRF 模型分辨率分别为 12 公里和 4 公里。当前状态下的城市和建成区，低城市化（30%），和高度城市化 (99%) 情景被视为 LULC 类别。随着城市化面积的增加，日平均、最高和最低气温以及降水量增加。局地环流影响气温和降水的空间不规则性。结果表明，城市化可以极大地放大未来气候变化的影响。这些结果可用于城市规划，以尽量减少城市化对温度和降水的不利影响。结果表明，城市化可以极大地放大未来气候变化的影响。这些结果可用于城市规划，以尽量减少城市化对温度和降水的不利影响。结果表明，城市化可以极大地放大未来气候变化的影响。这些结果可用于城市规划，以尽量减少城市化对温度和降水的不利影响。