Context: Species Distribution Models (SDM) can be used to investigate and understand relationships between species occurrence and environmental variables, so as to predict potential distribution. These predictions can facilitate conservation actions and management decisions. Oxley Wild Rivers National Park (OWRNP) is regarded as an important stronghold for the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata), on the basis of the presence of the largest known metapopulation of the species. Adequate knowledge of the species’ ecology and distribution in OWRNP is a key objective in the national recovery plan for the species occurring in the Park.

Aims: To model distribution using key GIS-derived environmental factors for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in OWRNP and to ground-truth its presence through field surveys in areas of high habitat suitability.

Methods: We used Maxent to model the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby within OWRNP on the basis of 282 occurrence records collected from an online database, elicitation of informal records from experts, helicopter surveys and historic records. Environmental variables used in the analysis were aspect, distance to water, elevation, geology type, slope and vegetation type.

Key results: Vegetation type (37.9%) was the highest contributing predictor of suitable habitat, whereas aspect (4.8%) contributed the least. The model produced an area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of 0.780. The model was able to discriminate between suitable and non-suitable habitat for brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Areas identified in our model as being highly suitable yielded eight new occurrence records during subsequent ground-truthing field surveys.

Conclusions: Brush-tailed rock-wallaby distribution in OWRNP is primarily associated with vegetation type, followed by distance to water, elevation, geology, slope and aspect. Field surveys indicated that the model was able to identify areas of high habitat suitability.

Implications: This model represents the first predicted distribution of brush-tailed rock-wallaby in OWRNP. By identifying areas of high habitat suitability, it can be used to survey and monitor the species in OWRNP, and, thus, contribute to its management and conservation within the Park.

背景：物种分布模型 (SDM) 可用于调查和了解物种发生与环境变量之间的关系，从而预测潜在分布。这些预测可以促进保护行动和管理决策。奥克斯利野生河流国家公园 (OWRNP) 被认为是受威胁的刷尾岩袋鼠 ( Petrogale penicillata )的重要据点，因为它存在已知最大的物种复合种群。充分了解 OWRNP 中物种的生态和分布是国家公园内物种恢复计划的一个关键目标。

目的：使用 GIS 衍生的关键环境因素对 OWRNP 中刷尾岩袋鼠的分布进行建模，并通过在栖息地高度适宜的地区进行实地调查，对其存在进行实地调查。

方法：我们使用 Maxent 根据从在线数据库收集的 282 条发生记录、专家的非正式记录、直升机调查和历史记录，对 OWRNP 内刷尾岩袋鼠的分布进行建模。分析中使用的环境变量是坡向、与水的距离、海拔、地质类型、坡度和植被类型。

主要结果：植被类型 (37.9%) 是适宜栖息地的最高贡献预测因子，而方面 (4.8%) 贡献最小。该模型产生的受试者工作特征 (ROC) 的曲线下面积 (AUC) 为 0.780。该模型能够区分适合和不适合刷尾岩袋鼠的栖息地。在我们的模型中确定为非常合适的区域在随后的实地实地调查中产生了八个新的发生记录。

结论： OWRNP 刷尾岩袋鼠分布主要与植被类型有关，其次是与水体的距离、海拔、地质、坡度和坡向。实地调查表明，该模型能够确定栖息地高度适宜的区域。

含义：该模型代表了 OWRNP 中刷尾岩袋鼠的第一个预测分布。通过确定栖息地高度适宜的区域，它可用于调查和监测 OWRNP 中的物种，从而有助于公园内的管理和保护。